The Elite QB Myth

By Akiva Wienerkur   November 9, 2022 

The Elite QB Myth

It’s become trendy for publications to get big-time athletes to pen their younger selves with words of wisdom, advice and admonishment. While I doubt the public at-large would care what This Dave would tell Younger Dave, I do know the correspondence would include this: “You were right about the option.”  

When I was growing up, I’d watch college football on fall Saturdays and pro football on fall Sundays. (As it happens, I still do that.) Obviously back then there were lots of similarities between the styles I’d see over the 48 hours, but what stood out was the ubiquity of big-time college teams beating up the competition by running the wishbone or triple-option, but by Sunday zero teams – big-time or bad – deploying the same successful approach. I’d ask grownups why NFL teams didn’t give it a shot: Surely Oklahoma’s Jamelle Holieway, Colorado’s Darian Hagan, or – later – Nebraska’s Tommie Frazier could skin the cat differently than pro football’s pocket passers AND STILL THRIVE. No, I was told, the defenders at the next level were simply too fast and the coordinators too smart for it to ever work.


Remember Jamelle Holieway?
Remember Jamelle Holieway?

But then came John Elway on designed runs. And Steve Young and Randall Cunningham added an element of speed to the position. Mike Vick then took it to another level, serving as precursor to Lamar Jackson’s Ravens going all in with the approach, and now Jalen Hurts’ Eagles are wrecking all comers more in the style of a Barry Switzer mid-’80s Sooners team than the Lincoln Riley Sooners team Jalen Hurts actually played on.  

In other words, I was right…and yet, every week, every month, every season, we hear the ostensibly “more reliable” talking heads on pregames and in play-by-play booths drop the same bunch of rigid pigskin platitudes and cliches based on ancient/outdated(?) wisdom…so let’s play a little truth or myth here at the halfway point in the 2022 season.

YOU NEED AN ELITE (as in: Top ten-ish) QB TO CONTEND FOR THE SUPER BOWL

Myth!

Tough one here for me as a guy who’s advocated this requirement…and up until a couple months ago, the 21st-century’s results had my back. The high-end trio of Brady, Peyton and Big Ben combined to win half the available Lombardis, while Rodgers’ Packers, Russ’s Seahawks and Brees’ Saints were near-constant threats to go all the way. And just nine months ago, the Rams further proved it with Matthew Stafford serving as the missing piece. Now? Well, Geno Smith’s Seahawks are in first place. Danny Dimes and the Giants are in contention for the NFC East title. King of the Middle-Class QB Kirk Cousins’ Vikes are running away from Aaron Rodgers (and everyone else) in the NFC North. Zach Wilson’s Jets are 6-3.

A GOOD QB ON HIS ROOKIE DEAL GIVES A TEAM THE BEST CHANCE OF CONTENDING FOR THE SUPER BOWL 

Truth!

Playing a little Devil’s Dameshek with the previous paragraph, what stands out about most of the list of the (good) surprise teams? With the exception of Cousins, the signal callers are all exceptionally affordable. Same formula applies for the Dolphins with Tua. And the Pats with two-headed Macley Zones. The Ravens, the Bengals, the (first-place?) Falcons. Even the Bills have been able to load up the roster because Josh Allen’s cap hit is just $16 million/8% of the cap. (The team around him will change for the worse in ’23 when that hit goes up to $40mil/17%.) As I’ve pointed out in this space previously, it’s not a coincidence – even in the Age of Brady – half of all Super Bowl-starting QBs have been on their rookie deal. When the most important player on the field is making less than your superstar edge rusher and/or left tackle and/or shutdown corner, that’s a good thing.

YOU NEED TO CONTROL THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE

Truth!

What’s one common thread among teams on the plus side of the win/loss ledger this season? Their o-lines and/or d-lines can dominate the competition. Seems kinda obvious, but it works. Philly’s the team that for a decade has most consistently devoted draft picks and free agent loot to load up. We know it already paid off once…and if you haven’t heard, they’re undefeated in the here and now.

A RUNNING BACK’S PRODUCTION WILL FALL OFF THE YEAR AFTER HE GETS 300 TOUCHES

Myth!

All by himself Derrick Henry is running over this notion like a would-be tackler, with the best bit of evidence being how he followed up his 400-touch 2019 season by going for 2000 yards in 2020. To be fair, though, he’s on a historical shortlist of RBs who continue to thrive at Age 28 after 1800+ some touches over his seven years in the league. Even all-time workhorses like Earl Campbell and OJ Simpson were pretty much all used up by that age (and FYI, Zeke Elliott is 27)…so the pessimist in me thinks the Titans would do well to slow the 400-touch pace they’ve got Henry tracking towards this season.

YOU GOTTA ESTABLISH THE RUN

Myth!

Old news for anyone who was awake during the back half of the Brady/Belichick years, but of course this has been repeatedly disproven over the last decade…including by the AFC’s best offensive collective in Kansas City. I’m quite sure any team would love the option of dominating on the ground, but it’s hardly a must-have element to win games. 

(By the way, Andy Reid is a breakout comedic star in that new insurance ad.)  

Geno Smith, who barely beat out Drew Lock for the starting gig, has the Seahawks in first place.

THIS TEAM NEEDS TO COME OUT AND PUNCH SOMEONE IN THE MOUTH

Myth!

At best, you’d be starting the game off with a 15-yard personal foul…and very likely game ejection. At worst, you could wind up being charged with a felony. Bottom line, this is a bad strategy.

THIS ONE’S GONNA COME DOWN TO WHO WANTS IT MORE

TBD!


Things are very normal in Indianapolis
Things are very normal in Indianapolis

Let’s see how things play out this weekend in Las Vegas before rendering a verdict. On one hand, new Colts head coach Jeff Saturday and his gang will want to stick it to the cynics with a win…but on the other hand, 2-win Josh McDaniels and his affluent collection of underachievers will surely be desperate for victory themselves. Therefore, this analyst will be surprised if both coaches don’t tell their teams to want it more than the other guys, which in turn would mean the game coming down to who’s better at football. But like I say, let’s take a wait and see approach here.

For now, let’s address some clearer matters…

Best Bets Ever of the Week

(9-6-1, 62-47-1)

COL/USC u66.5

Pitt/UVA o40

Indiana/Ohio St o57.5

Bama/Ole Miss o63.5

Penn St -10.5

Miss St +16.5

Texas -7

TCU/Texas o65

—-

Dolphins -4

Broncos +3

Cowboys -5

DAL/GB o43

Lions +3

Niners -7

Commies +11

Enjoy the games, and remember: I hope your team wins…unless they’re playing my team.

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