The Detroit Lions let one get away there, no doubt, but as we have seen in the offseason, quarterback trades often made purely for financial reasons are happening a lot in today’s NFL, where cap management is often as important as play-calling.
Teams have gone through their OTAs (Organized Team Activities) and are conducting mini-camps this month, which is now halfway finished. That means we are getting closer to the start of the football season after we all (hopefully) get some downtime this summer to re-charge.
Today we turn to the AFC, which had produced five of the past six Super Bowl winners but is now in a two-year drought after the Bengals fell to the Rams 23-20 earlier this year. One of the 16 teams is going to make it to the game in Glendale, Arizona next February, and the preseason favorite to come out of the AFC is the Buffalo Bills, who are the +650 favorite to win the championship (even though they have never, ever won one.)
Buffalo is coming off a 42-36 overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in last year’s divisional round of the playoffs, and it is no surprise to see the Chiefs listed two spots behind them at +950 with the third-lowest Super Bowl winner odds (Tampa Bay is in between at +750.)
So let us take a closer look at what the projected win totals are and what the upcoming NFL football season will hold. Like we did with the NFC, we will take them from highest to lowest.
Buffalo Bills: Over/under win total is 11.5. Josh Allen is the +700 favorite to be the Most Valuable Player, so that is a good place to start. Allen finished more than 900 yards behind Tom Brady of the Bucs for most passing yards in the NFL, but Allen may be the Bills’ best rusher, something Brady does not do for the Bucs. He rushed for 763 yards last season, which was 25th in the league and more than any quarterback other than Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. The Bills finished last season with four consecutive lopsided wins and then drubbed the Patriots by 30 in the wild card game. Their schedule includes the season opener against the Rams along with road games at Cincinnati and Kansas City, and their most intriguing home game is a Sunday night home matchup with the Green Bay Packers on Oct 30. They get the Vikings at home in their NFC Central matchups and travel to Detroit and Chicago for what should be blow out wins.
Wilner’s pick: Over.
Myers pick: Over.
Wetzel’s pick: Over.
Davis’ pick: Over.
Kansas City Chiefs: Over/under win total, 10.5. We have seen Patrick Mahomes in two of the last three Super Bowls, and he will be an MVP race fixture for the next decade or so. This season, he does not have Tyreek Hill as a target anymore after he was dealt to Miami (where he got a $30 million annual contract) in exchange for five high draft picks. Hill had more than 700 fewer receiving yards and seven fewer TDs than league leader Cooper Kupp, so draw our own conclusions about whether he deserved the money he got from the Dolphins. Either way, Mahomes loses his favorite target. On defense, only five teams allowed more total yards than the Chiefs, and coach Andy Reid used his first-round pick on cornerback Trent McDuffie to help address a deficiency there. Defense is the biggest differentiator between the Chiefs and the team rated above them, the Bills. That is one reason why Mahomes is so valuable. He gets to play Matthew Stafford at home in Week 2, Brady on the road in Week 4 and Allen at home in Week 6. Five of their games will be played at night, and the last five of the regular season are somewhat easy after they visit the Bengals.
Wilner’s pick: Over.
Myers pick: Under.
Wetzel’s pick: Over.
Davis’ pick: Over.
Denver Broncos: Over/under win total: 10.5. This one definitely qualifies under the “shocking” category because the Broncos were last in their division last season and won only seven games. But when you make a deal like they did, acquiring Russell Wilson from the Seahawks, expectations get bigger. Rob Walton just bought the franchise for $4.65 billion, which was wonderful news to the other 31 NFL owners who saw the value of their franchises increase. Now, let’s see what he gets out of Wilson, who is a nine-time Pro Bowler who tossed 25 touchdown passes and just six interceptions last season, the best ratio of anybody not named Aaron Rodgers. The Broncos scored only 19.7 points per game last season, so Wilson has a culture to change as he takes over at QB and implements the Green Bay/West Coast offense that has been used by new head coach Nathaniel Hackett. The schedule is favorable. Easiest first eight games in NFL (their opponents had a .412 winning percentage last season).
Wilner’s pick: Under.
Myers pick: Under.
Wetzel’s pick: Under.
Davis’ pick: Under.
Los Angeles Chargers: Over/under win total, 10: A 4-1 start last season was undone by frequently trading wins and losses, and the team that formerly called San Diego home lost in overtime as Las Vegas in the final regular season game. So the Chargers ended up as one of three 9-8 teams that missed the playoffs but could at least say that they won more than they lost. This season, they have to deal with the distraction of owner Dean Spanos being sued by his sister, Dea, in a family battle for control of the franchise they inherited from their parents. This team’s on-field fortunes rest on the arm of third year quarterback Justin Herbert, who threw for an astounding 5,014 yards last season, 302 shy of league-leading Tom Brady. Herbert is an interesting MVP candidate at odds of +1000, but he plays in an absolutely loaded division In which the Chiefs are clearly the best team and the Raiders have shown an uncanny knack for winning. The Chargers’ schedule is very tough. Their final eight games are against teams that finished last season .500 or better, and they will try to fatten up beforehand, including what should be an easy stretch and Jacksonville, Cleveland and Houston.
Wilner’s pick: Push.
Myers pick: Over.
Wetzel’s pick: Push.
Davis’ pick: Over.
Cincinnati Bengals: Over/under win total is 9.5. They were the best team in a very mediocre division last season in which just two wins separated the first and last place teams. The Bengals were the only team in the AFC North with a positive point differential, so that is one reason to have them ranked this high in the over/under win total rankings. But is it enough? They are the quintessential middle-of-the-pack team in both offensive and defensive stats, yet they were good enough to defeat the Titans and Chiefs on the road, with both games decided by three points, before losing by 3 against the Rams in the Super Bowl. They were not the team almost anybody expected to make it to the championship game, especially when they were sitting at 7-6 after Week 14. But it helps in football when you peak in January, which the Bengals did. Joe Burrow and Co. get five nighttime appearances this season and also have a national TV afternoon games against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys on Sept 18 Tom Brady and the Bucs on Dec. 18. They have the AFC’s toughest schedule according to The Athletic.
Wilner’s pick: Over.
Myers pick: Over.
Wetzel’s pick: Over.
Davis’ pick: Over.
Baltimore Ravens: Over/under win total, 9.5. Probably the most disappointing AFC team last season when they lost their final six games to ruin a 5-1 start and an 8-3 record heading into December. The losses were by 2, 1, 21 and 3, which did not help the mental mindset of a fan base that got sort of accustomed to this team being a defensive powerhouse year after year. Last season, the Ravens were in the bottom fourth of the league in terms of yards allowed, offsetting their sixth-ranked offense. Lamar Jackson’s contract situation is tricky because the quarterback is one of the few NFL players without an agent, and cap management is complicated by having a franchise player of his caliber in that kind of limbo. Last season, he had just 16 TD passes and 13 interceptions, and led the team with 767 rushing yards. Justin Tucker is one of the league’s best place-kickers and went 6-for-6 from 50 yards or longer. So this team has some great players and a relatively easy schedule (23rd toughest out of 32). They open with four straight against the AFC East, and four of their final five are divisional games.
Wilner’s pick: Over.
Myers pick: Over.
Wetzel’s pick: Over.
Davis’ pick: Over.
Indianapolis Colts: Over/under win total: 9.5. Matt Ryan will be their fifth starting quarterback in the past five years, which is just too weird. No other way to put it. The 37-year-old’s arm strength will be watched closely, but he has been around the block enough to know how things get done in the NFL, and coach Frank Reich (a former quarterback himself) was glowing in his praise following mini-camp. The 2016 MVP spent 14 years with the Falcons, and the change of scenery will be new to him. But he is known for pinpoint accuracy, and what the Colts want from him that they did not get from Carson Wentz is leadership. Indianapolis had the fourth best point differential in the AFC last year but was undone by losses in the final two games against Las Vegas and 3-14 Jacksonville when a wild-card spot was at stake. The highlights of the schedule include the fact that their best non-division opponents, Dallas, the Chargers, Chiefs and Titans, all will play those games in Indianapolis.
Wilner’s pick: Over.
Myers pick: Over.
Wetzel’s pick: Over.
Davis’ pick: Over.
Tennessee Titans: Over/under win total, 9.5: After they won a dozen games last season, why is their number down to 9? Did the trade of star receiver A.J. Brown really lower their stock this much? Well, the Titans only got back a pair of draft picks, drawing criticism, but they traded for Rams receiver Robert Woods and drafted rookie wideout Treylon Burks despite his asthma, which affected him in mini-camp. The Titans were in the top half of the league both offensively and defensively. They sacked Joe Burrow nine times in their three-point (on the last play of the game) loss to Cincinnati in the divisional round of the playoffs, getting especially hurt by three Ryan Tannehill interceptions. They had Derrick Henry back at running back in that game, but he had missed the previous nine with a foot injury. To be frank, the low over/under is confusing. The schedule has them playing the NFC Least, and road games at Buffalo, Kansas City and Green Bay look like the only games where they will be automatic underdogs.
Wilner’s pick: Over.
Myers pick: Under.
Wetzel’s pick: Under.
Davis’ pick: Under.
Miami Dolphins, Over/under win total: 8.5. Not to belabor the point, but the same number as Tennessee? The Dolphins were a third-place team and the Titans won their division. Miami scored 78 fewer points and surrendered 19 more. Whatever. What’s important for the Dolphins is that Tua Tagovailoa now has Tyreek Hill to throw to along with franchise player designee Mike Gesecki, and adding a wide receiver of Hill’s caliber (he is considered the speediest player in the entire NFL) most certainly makes them better. Their strength of schedule is ranked 21st, they have only two semi-tough non-division road games at the Rams and the Chargers, and they get the two best NFC Central teams, Green Bay and Minnesota, at home. All in all, new coach Mike McDaniel should have this team in the playoffs barring unlikely losses to lesser opponents. What he needs most from Tagovailoa is a better TDs to INTs ratio than the 16-10 he had last season.
Wilner’s pick: Over.
Myers pick: Over.
Wetzel’s pick: Under.
Davis’ pick: Under.
New England Patriots: Over/under line, 8.5: Quarterback Mac Jones has been working on his deep passing game during mini-camp, and witnesses were impressed with what they saw. Jones had poor deep throw numbers last season for an offense that otherwise was ranked 16th in the NFL while the defense was ranked fourth in yards allowed and second in points allowed. Those are pretty good rankings, which makes this over/under number a little fishy and perhaps too low. They only have to play the Buffalo Bills twice, although they do have tough road games at Green Bay, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Arizona and Las Vegas among their non-division games. Losing cornerback J.C. Jackson hurts, but that is what depth is for, and Bill Belichick used two of his first round draft picks on cornerbacks. They had 10 wins a year ago but went just 4-5 at home. Fix that, and this number is probably too low.
Wilner’s pick: Over.
Myers pick: Over.
Wetzel’s pick: Over.
Davis’ pick: Over.
Las Vegas Raiders: Over/under line, 8. After the Jon Gruden craziness last year (he resigned after unflattering emails he wrote were released publicly), the new coach is Josh McDaniels, who has spent the bulk of his coaching career with the New England Patriots and Tom Brady and so knows a thing or two about winning consistently and in big games. Acquiring wide receiver Davante Adams from Green Bay was the team’s biggest offseason move, and they signed 29 free agents as the new staff quickly remade the roster of a team that ran into the Cincinnati buzzsaw in the postseason and had untimely penalties and interceptions to lose by 7 in that game after winning their final four games to qualify. Their goal is to finish ahead of the Chiefs, which would make the over hit, and critical will be the closing five games: At the Rams, vs. the Patriots, At Pittsburgh, then home for the 49ers and Chiefs.
Wilner’s pick: Over.
Myers pick: Over.
Wetzel’s pick: Over.
Davis’ pick: Push.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Over/under line, 7.5. They were 9-7-1 last season in Ben Roethlisberger’s curtain call/last hurrah, and were the only team with a winning record, aside from Las Vegas, that had a negative point differential. They were OK for a little more than one quarter of their playoff game against Kansas City and then allowed Patrick Mahomes to lead six consecutive touchdown drives in a 42-21 blowout. Mitch Trubisky, the backup in Buffalo last season, is the new starting QB and is coming off a season in which he threw only 8 passes after being a four-year starter for the Bears and was once the overall No. 2 pick in the draft. So safe to say his arm is rested. Mike Tomlin has the controversial Brian Flores on his staff, and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick just became the highest-paid safety in NFL history. Big challenge with the new QB for Tomlin, now in his 15th season. Toughest non-division road games are Buffalo, Miami and Philadelphia.
Wilner’s pick: Over.
Myers pick: Under.
Wetzel’s pick: Under.
Davis’ pick: Over.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Over/under win total, 6.5. Making this number would mean doubling their victory total, which many thought would be 2 last season before they defeated the Colts in their season finale. They lost five games by 20 or more points last season, and the prioritized defense in the draft by taking Travon Walker No. 1 overall and linebacker Devin Lloyd 20th. As far as an offense that ranked 26th last season, they will need maturation from quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who had 17 interceptions and just 12 TD passes last season. Running back Travis Etienne, a first-rounder in 2021 who missed his entire rookie season with a foot injury, should at the very least be a sleeper pick for your fantasy team. But as for making it to a half-dozen wins might require sweeping their weakest opponents: Houston, New York Jets, Detroit and Baltimore. They are +120 to win the Super Bowl, shorter odds than Carolina, Seattle, the Jets, Falcons and Texans.
Wilner’s pick: Under.
Myers pick: Under.
Wetzel’s pick: Under.
Davis’ pick: Under.
New York Jets: Over/under win total, 5.5. FanDuel has taken the most “over” action on the Jets and Eagles, but keep in mind that Jets fans wager with their hearts rather than their minds. They were brutal last season to the point of being unwatchable as rookie quarterback Zach Wilson threw only nine TD passes along with 11 interceptions while getting sacked 44 times. If there is a quarterback with worse rookie numbers than that, the Jets probably will make sure their beat writers excoriate that guy to soften the criticism of their kid from BYU. The Jets were the only NFL team to give up 500 points, which they tried to address by taking cornerback Sauce Garner 4th overall and defensive end Jermain Johnson 26th along with WR Garrett Wilson 10th. So they will remain only as good as their kids are, and their strength of schedule is ranked 17th. Six of their first seven opponents are from outside their division, and that includes road games at Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Denver.
Wilner’s pick: Over.
Myers pick: Over.
Wetzel’s pick: Over.
Davis’ pick: Over.
Houston Texans: Win total over/under 4.5. This is the lowest number in the entire NFL. Why? Well, the Texans were 4-13 and scored fewer points than any team aside from the Giants. They produced the fewest offensive yards per game and allowed more yardage than any team except for the Jets. Their offseason was defined by the Deshaun Watson trade in which they got back six picks from the Browns and ridded themselves of a player whose offseason transgressions have been one of the biggest negative stories involving an athlete in any sport all offseason. General manager Nick Caserio is in full rebuild/restock mode, and that usually does not translate into much on-field success in the short term. Play four of their first six on the road.
Wilner’s pick: Under.
Myers pick: Under.
Wetzel’s pick: Over.
Davis’ pick: Over.
Cleveland Browns: Win total over/under of Off The Board. They are dealing with the Deshaun Watson mess, and there has been no bigger distraction to the NFL this offseason, and Watson could be facing a lengthy suspension under the code of conduct rules. But the franchise still must to stand by the guy they just acquired and absorb the bad PR, hoping it blows over before the preseason so that Watson can get used to playing with a new receiving corps. Still to come, presumably, is a Baker Mayfield trade. He was selected No. 1 overall out of Oklahoma, but the Browns cannot deal them if they stand to lose Watson for an extended period of time. Messy situation, eh? If he is eligible, Watson returns to Houston to face the Texans Dec. 4.
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