NFL Divisional Round Odds and Picks

It’s time to appreciate what we have. After this weekend there are only three NFL games left, so we need to savor every game left on the vanishing schedule. This weekend features three games with teams (the Bills, Browns, and Rams) that have never won a Super Bowl, and a fourth game (Tampa vs. New Orleans) that features the two most prolific quarterbacks in NFL history. The possibilities for history to be made abound, and so do the gambling options. Let’s go through the best bets of the week. 

The Bets

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers (-6.5, -105) over the Los Angeles Rams (888 Sport)

The Green Bay Packers have this season’s (likely) NFL MVP. The Rams have Jared Goff, whose coach essentially gave him a vote of no confidence last week, when he started John Wolford, despite Goff having what was ultimately a mild injury. Rams coach Sean McVay has not declared a starter yet for this season, but ultimately it shouldn’t affect your bet whether the Rams play Goff or Wolford, which is an indictment on Goff. 

Here’s a cool stat: the Green Bay Packers have scored 24 or more points in their last ten games. They have also only allowed more than 25 points once in that stretch. Meanwhile, the Rams defense has only allowed more than 24 points once since Week 9. The Rams offense actually scored 30+ points in three of its first five games, but did not score 30 points again during the regular season. Last week, however, they scored 30 points against the Seahawks. 

Taking a closer look, the Rams completed fewer than half of their passes, and ran 43 times for 169 yards, averaging under 4 yards per carry. To beat the Packers, the Rams will need to throw the ball better than they have in many weeks, as they are averaging about 200 yards passing in their last five games. It’s not impossible, Goff does have five 300+ yard passing games this, but if he even plays Goff is unlikely to be 100% and even a B-minus day from Aaron Rodgers should be good enough. 

Final Score: Green Bay 27, Rams 17

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills (-2.5, -115) over the Baltimore Ravens (Bet MGM)

This is a matchup between the two teams smart bettors loved the most all season. The Bills and the Ravens were two of the three best teams against the spread all season long, with the Ravens 11-5-1 ATS and Buffalo 11-6. If you crunch the numbers further, Buffalo and Baltimore really stood out all season long. In their 17 games this season, the Bills have outscored the spread by an average of 5.1 points per game, the best mark in the NFL. The Ravens outpaced the spread by 4.6 points per game, the second best number in the league, no other team reached +4 points per game. 

Here’s the thing about this line: it feels low. The Bills have won seven straight games and ten of their last 11. They are playing at home, and while the stadium won’t be full, there are going to be fans in the crowd. The Ravens greatest strength is stopping the run, look at what they did last week to Derrick Henry. Well, the Bills don’t focus on running the football, they haven’t had a 100 yard rushing game all season, or even a 90 yard game. Bills running backs carried the ball only 10 times last week in their win over the Colts. This is the best bet of the week, because there’s a real chance that the Ravens, with the worst receiving corps in the playoffs, will fall apart if Buffalo tries to make this a shootout. 

Final Score: Buffalo 31, Baltimore 17

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs

The Cleveland Browns (+10, -110) to cover against the Kansas City Chiefs (Bet MGM)

First, let’s acknowledge the obvious fact: 10 points is a lot for a team as talented as the Cleveland Browns to be getting. We also shouldn’t pretend that the Chiefs are invincible, only one team has repeated as Super Bowl champions this century, and the 2003-04 Patriots are the only team to repeat since the 1992-92 Cowboys. It’s really hard to win back-to-back Super Bowls. The Chiefs defense is not great, and they haven’t defeated a team by 10 points since they beat the Jets 35-9 in Week 8. Their last seven wins are all by 7 points or less and they only have 4 double digit wins all season. 

The flip side is, of course, that the Chiefs have the best QB in the league and arguably the best coach in league history at using the bye to his advantage. In order to bet on an underdog you need to believe that they have a chance to win the game and that is a stretch here, but it is possible. The Browns struggled in the early season against good teams, getting blown out by the Ravens and Steelers, but ultimately they are 5-3 on the season against playoff teams and have not lost by 10 or more points since Week 8. 

Teams have not been covering double digit spreads all season in the NFL, and that won’t stop here. If you love the Browns you can get them outright at +400, also. 

Final Score: Kansas City 31, Cleveland 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Under 52 points (-105) in the Saints-Bucs game (Points Bet)

There’s a famous adage that the hardest thing to do in the NFL is defeat the same team three times in a season. Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady will tell you that’s true, he famously lost to Mark Sanchez and the Jets in the 2010 playoffs after demolishing them twice during the regular season. Well, the Saints did some demolishing of their own, hammering the Bucs 38-3 in Tampa in November after beating them 43-23 in Week 1. 

The good news for Tampa is that Tom Brady looks much sharper than Drew Brees, in fact most experts assume that Brady will return next season while Brees who will turn 43 two days before the game is expected to retire. Other than their two losses to the Saints, Tampa has not lost a game by more than three points all season. The hard truth is this game, with a line of New Orleans -3, is too tough to call. What we do know is that both teams looked sluggish last week and both defenses are going to give the aging quarterbacks everything they can handle. Play the under and don’t sweat who wins. 

Final Score: New Orleans 20, Tampa Bay 17