The Complete College Football Futures Picture Week 4

Penn State Future Odds Week 4: (Now +3500, 888 Sport       Opened +5000)

This week Penn State will beat Villanova soundly and improve to 4-0 on the season. Next week, they will likely defeat Indiana at home and move to 5-0. 

Right now, the Nittany Lions are ranked sixth in the nation, but they have a futures number that looks like it belongs to a team ranked 12th. In fact, a number of teams behind them in the AP rankings, have much lower numbers. Oregon is hovering around +2500 in most books. Ohio State is around +1200 and they have a loss this season. Clemson already has a loss, doesn’t look especially impressive, and is around +1100. 

The Tigers and the Buckeyes don’t have a margin of error but the Nittany Lions do. Penn State has already knocked off Wisconsin, ranked 12th in the country at the time, and Auburn. The Nittany Lions have four games left against ranked teams, they host Michigan and they travel to Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan State, one of the hardest road slates in the country. 

Because of their brutal slate, the Nittany Lions can easily afford one loss without seriously harming their CFP chances. That number will be +2500 by the time they get to 5-0. 

Iowa Future Odds Week 4   (Now : +8000, 888 Sport      Opened : +10000)

Much of what we said about Penn State can also be said about Iowa. Undefeated Big Ten team? Check. Already have a non-conference win against a highly ranked opponent? Check. Already beaten a ranked Big Ten team? Also check. The big difference between Iowa and Penn State is that the Hawkeyes future number is still astronomically high, despite Iowa (5) being ranked higher than Penn State (6) currently. 

Being in the Big Ten West, the Hawkeyes have a much easier route to the playoff. They don’t play Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State, all ranked. They have two remaining games against ranked opponents, as they will host Penn State and visit Wisconsin. Suppose they lost the game at Wisconsin but ran the table the rest of the way. Would an 11-1 Iowa team that defeated Iowa State, Penn State, and Indiana be playing for a spot in the playoff with a win over, say, Ohio State or Penn State? It seems likely? That number has only one place to go and it’s down. 

Texas A&M Future Odds Week 4   (Now : +3300, Points Bet      Opened : +4000)

Things are trending upward for Texas A&M. The Aggies have moved up to number 7 in the country. They don’t play Florida or Georgia, the two best teams in the SEC East. Their games against both Alabama and Auburn will be at home. They went 3-0 against the FBS portion of their non conference slate. There is one hurdle that stands in the Aggies’ way, the Alabama Crimson Tide. 

If the Aggies can beat Alabama then they can even afford a loss, be it this week to Arkansas, or later in the season to Ole Miss or Auburn,without ruining their playoff hopes. 

The Aggies did struggle in their 10-7 win against Colorado, but oddsmakers are taking note of the positive situation for Texas A&M which has dropped the number down to +3300. It’s realistic to think that if the Aggies run the table except for the ‘Bama game, an 11-1 SEC team with wins over Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, and Ole Miss would be a contender for the playoff, especially with a number of traditional contenders, like Clemson, Ohio State, and Notre Dame, looking vulnerable early in the season.