The Complete College Football Futures Picture: Week 12

We’re nearing the end of the college football season and there are about ten teams who still have a chance to win the national title. Some of those teams will eliminate each other, like in the Big Ten, where Ohio State still has to play Michigan State and Michigan. Alabama and Georgia are still on a collision course and Oklahoma versus Oklahoma State will be an elimination game. With just two weeks left in the regular season, let’s see which NCAAF Futures are the most interesting realistic options left on the board. 

Notre Dame Future Odds Week 12 (Current Odds: +15000, UniBet)

Notre Dame is ranked 8th in the College Football Playoff but is 150-1 to win the title. Oklahoma is ranked 13th and is 40-1. Does this make sense at all? 

The Fighting Irish have a serious Cincinnati problem. There is no way Notre Dame can pass an undefeated Cincinnati team that won in South Bend. If the Bearcats lose once, Notre Dame has a shot at passing it, but the committee might punt on the decision by putting in a two-loss Alabama team or one-loss Oklahoma/Oklahoma State squad. 

Notre Dame’s best chance is for Cincinnati to lose, Alabama to be blown out by Georgia, and for both Oklahoma teams to have two losses. It wouldn’t hurt if Oregon lost a second time, as well. That’s why they’re 150-1. 

Oregon Future Odds Week 12 (Current Odds: +2500, DraftKings)

Oregon’s situation is extremely simple. If the Ducks win out, they are in. If they lose a second time? They are toast. 

The Ducks have run away with a PAC-12 that only has two other teams with fewer than 4 losses, Utah and Arizona State. There are as many teams in the state of Washington who have fired their coach in the past two weeks as there are teams in the conference that are ranked. Things are so weird, that Utah has a better chance of playing in the Rose Bowl if they lose to Oregon this week, since the Ducks would steal their spot with a loss. 

So, to make the CFP, Oregon needs to win at ranked Utah, then win the Civil War against Oregon State at home, and then beat Utah, or Arizona State. Remember, that’s just to make the playoff, in which they will probably be a serious underdog in both games. They did beat Ohio State in Columbus this season, so anything is possible. 

Alabama Future Odds Week 12 (Current Odds: +360, DraftKings)

Alabama is going to be a slight underdog against Georgia, but if they beat the Bulldogs, presuming, of course, they take care of business against Arkansas and Auburn, they would be the number one seed in the CFP. That very well might entail playing Cincinnati in the semifinal, and then, possibly Georgia again in the final. 

So, +360 odds to beat Georgia twice, Arkansas at home, Cincinnati on a neutral field, and at Auburn. When it’s put that way, it doesn’t seem like that much of a bargain. 

You can factor in that ‘Bama still has a puncher’s chance if they lose one of their three remaining SEC games, but that also means they are a worse team than we currently assume and then this number is still too high.