After playing a handful of close games against unranked opposition, the Sooners got the message and started blowing people out, putting up 52 on both TCU and Texas Tech.
The bad news for the Sooners is that the difficult part of their BIG 12 schedule first starts now when they visit Baylor, then host Iowa State, before going to Oklahoma City for Bedlam. Those are arguably the three best Big 12 teams other than the Sooners themselves.
So, the 14-1 odds are basically against the Sooners winning six games in a row against, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, then probably Oklahoma State again inj the conference championship game, followed by, say, Alabama and Georgia. When we put it that way, 14-1 seems like a bad deal.
Michigan somehow passed Michigan State in the College Football Playoff rankings this week, and is now sixth in the country. While no one doubts the Wolverines control their own destiny, they also don’t have an array of impressive wins this season. Their best victory is in Wisconsin, but they have two chances to improve on that, starting with this week in Penn State.
If Michigan can beat Penn State, Maryland, and Ohio State, you could argue they are better off losing a tiebreaker for the conference title game than risking a loss against Iowa or Wisconsin in December. A one-loss Michigan team would be ahead of every team except for Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, and a one-loss Michigan State that won the Big Ten title game, so they’d only need one loss to any of the final four teams mentioned to earn a spot in the CFP.
The issue is that no one really believes that Michigan could actually win two games in the CFP, even if they somehow get there. That’s why their number is 60-1.
Oklahoma State is 8-1. If they beat Texas Tech, TCU, and Oklahoma, they will qualify for the Big 12 title game, where they would likely play Oklahoma again. If they beat Oklahoma twice, they would almost certainly have a spot in the College Football Playoff.
How likely is that to happen? Not very, they will be underdogs against Oklahoma both times and TCU and Texas Tech could give them a game. There’s a reason why they’re 100-1. Still, it’s pretty fair to say that they control their own destiny and could probably jump over an undefeated Cincinnati team or a one-loss Oregon or Notre Dame squad, if it ever came to that, which, in all likelihood, it will not.
Still, 100-1 on a few bucks for a flier can be fun, even if it involves a team winning six games in a row, when they will be a massive underdog in the final four of those games.