For some teams this is the final week of the season where they play one final non-conference game before they fall into their eight game conference schedule. For others, it’s week one of a daunting 8 or 9 game conference slate. We have some massive lines for non-conference games (ie. Alabama being -45 against Southern Miss) and some huge spreads for conference play, as well (Georgia is a -35.5 favorite at Vanderbilt). There are also dozens of games with spreads under one score, like LSU versus Mississippi State and Notre Dame against Wisconsin. This is the final week of the season where the NCAAF odds
are making sure there is truly a bet for everyone.
Season record: 5-5
The Bet : West Virginia +17 (-110, DraftKings)
The Bet : Over 56 points (-110, BetMGM)
We’re marking this down as one of our locks of the year. Last week, the Sooners squealed past a miserable Nebraska team while the Mountaineers were busy upsetting a ranked Virginia Tech squad. Just two weeks ago, Oklahoma struggled for 60 minutes against Tulsa, ultimately winning 40-35.
West Virginia opened their season with a disappointing loss to Maryland, falling 30-24, before beating LIU 66-0. The Mountaineers held off the Hokies last week 27-21.
There is definitely some history involved here: Oklahoma last lost at home to West Virginia in 1982. The Sooners lead the all-time series 10-2 and have won eight games in a row. But, the line isn’t asking West Virginia to make history, it’s asking them to lose by fewer than 17 points.
Spencer Rattler has been very good for the Sooners this season, albeit not necessarily playing to his preseason Heisman status. Rattler has completed 74.7% of his passes, has thrown for 761 yards, and has thrown 7 TD and 2 INT. Kennedy Brooks has run for 210 yards and 3 TD at a 6.2 yards per carry clip.
Jarret Doege mans the QB position for WVU, he has thrown for 729 yards and 6 TD versus 3 INT this season. Leddie Brown has 265 yards rushing and 5 TD on 5.2 yards per carry. Sam James has 10 catches for 166 yards and 3 TD.
This is the first time all season that West Virginia is an underdog. Despite being unranked, they were -2 favorites against Virginia Tech last week. The only team that Oklahoma has blown out this season is FCS Western Carolina. Oklahoma is probably going to win this game, but they aren’t running away with it.
As far as the points total is concerned, Oklahoma couldn’t stop Tulsa. West Virginia is averaging 25 points per game, while Oklahoma is averaging over 45 points per game. The floor for this game is in the low 50’s and the ceiling is the 70’s.
UMass @ Coastal Carolina
The Bet : UMass +36 (-110, DraftKings)
This might be controversial to say, but UMass isn’t as bad as people think. The Minutemen have lost 14 games in a row dating back to 2019. All 14 of those games have been decided by at least 14 points. But, this season, UMass has already been competitive against Boston College, losing 45-28 as a whopping +39 underdog and then losing to Eastern Michigan by 14 when they were a +22 underdog.
Coastal Carolina is ranked 17th in the country but also struggled to beat Buffalo last week, winning 28-25 as a -14 favorite. The Chanticleers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games, dating back to last season.
Coastal Carolina’s wins this season have been against The Citadel, Kansas, and Buffalo. Two of those teams have failed to beat an FBS this season and the third team is an FCS team.
The Chanticleers have gotten excellent QB play from Grayson McCall, who has 739 passing yards, and 6 TD against just one interception. Shermari Jones and Reese White have combined to rush for 502 yards and 8 TD. Jaivon Heiligh has 16 catches for 346 yards and 3 TD.
The Minutemen are led offensively by Brady Olson who has thrown for 502 yards and 5 TD and RB Ellis Merriweather who has rushed for 201 yards on 5.4 yards per carry.
When these teams played in 2019, Coastal Carolina won 62-28 as a -17 road favorite. This UMass team appears to be slightly better than the 2019 version and while Coastal Carolina has improved as well, it’s not clear that they should be favored by -36 over anyone.
The Bet : Arizona +28 (-110, BetMGM)
The 3-0 Oregon Ducks are ranked third in the nation. The 0-3 Arizona Wildcats have lost 15 straight games, dating back to 2019. Just knowing those two facts, a 28 point spread might seem low, but when you crunch the numbers, they favor Arizona covering.
Coach Jedd Fisch’s Arizona tenure has gotten off to a brutal start. The Wildcats hit rock bottom last week when they lost to the in-state Northern Arizona Lumberjacks. Arizona’s other losses have come to BYU and San Diego State.
The Wildcats were competitive against a BYU team making its rounds in the PAC-12, losing by 8 as a +13.5 underdog. The Wildcats worst loss this season actually came when they were favored, as they lost to San Diego State by 24 when they were favored by -1.5. The less said about last week’s loss to Northern Arizona, when the Wildcats were favored by 26.5 points and lost by 2, the better.
Oregon is a particularly impressive 3-0, with an opening win against a now-ranked Fresno State team and a road victory at Ohio State.
Anthony Brown has played well for the Ducks, throwing for 189 yards per game, with a 4:0 TD to INT ratio on the year, and a 59.7 completion percentage. CJ Verdell has run for 5.9 yards per carry, with 289 yards and 3 TD on the ground. Travis Dye also has 3 rushing scores and a 5.4 per carry average.
For Arizona, three different players have spent time under center, Gunner Cruz, Will Plummer, and Jordan McCloud. The trio has thrown 5 TD and 4 INT and have been sacked ten times. As a team, the Wildcats are running for 2.9 yards per carry and have zero rushing TD. Stanley Berryhill III has played well at wideout, with 28 catches for 263 and a TD.
Oregon has actually yet to cover as a favorite this season. They beat Fresno State by a touchdown when they were favored by -19.5 and they were a -42 favorite against FCS Stony Brook and won by 41.
Arizona is not a good football team, but they are much better than Stony Brook. Ironically, the last time these two teams played, in 2019, Oregon won by exactly 28, the line for this week’s game. You can actually get the +27.5 number at -103 on 888Sport if you don’t care about the extra half point.