Updates in College Basketball Futures: February 9

By Sidelines   February 9, 2022 

Updates in College Basketball Futures: February 9

Two weeks ago, Auburn took over the top spot in the AP Top 25 at +1600. We had them as “stock up,” figuring they would keep winning and see their odds get shorter. 

Well, there were a couple close calls (a one-point win at Missouri and a two-point win at Georgia), but the Tigers have proven to be the real deal, and their odds to win the NCAA tournament are now around +900. 

Even if the Tigers lose, which history shows that they will, they have probably done enough to earn a No. 1 seed, making their tournament path a bit easier. At the worst, they will be a No. 2 seed if they can’t beat Kentucky in the SEC tournament. 

Elsewhere, the Big 12 has become a “Murderer’s Row” of talent, as all of the good teams are beating each other, and decent teams have lousy conference records. Iowa State, ranked in the top-10 at one point this season, is 3-7 in conference play–and still expected to make the tournament!

Out west, Arizona is looking like a lock for a No. 1 seed, and we’ll take a look at Gonzaga as well as they do what they usually do this time of year–roll through the West Coast Conference competition. 

There’s just about a month left of conference play in NCAAB men’s college basketball, so let’s take stock in the complete futures odds picture.

Stock Up – Duke and Providence

Duke Blue Devils Futures Odds

(Current Odds to win NCAA Championship: +1400, PointsBet)

Duke Blue Devils head coach Mike Krzyzewski with guard Trevor Keels (1) in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center | Sidelines
Duke Blue Devils head coach Mike Krzyzewski with guard Trevor Keels (1) in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Duke learned a valuable lesson on Monday night. After a big win at rival North Carolina on Saturday, the Blue Devils came out flat at home against Virginia, falling behind 34-29 at halftime and lost on a 3-pointer with two seconds remaining. Head coach Mike Krzyzewski said that every team they face will be hungry, and the Blue Devils have to remain hungry even after they’ve eaten. 

The Blue Devils are now tied atop the ACC with Notre Dame at 9-3 with Duke being 19-4 overall. We saw early in the season that the Blue Devils can play with anyone–holding neutral-site wins over Kentucky and Gonzaga. And given the fact that it’s Krzyzewski’s final season coaching, expect the Duke players to be more motivated than ever to send their coach off with another Final Four appearance. 

Monday’s loss sent Duke’s NCAAB futures odds from +1000 down to +1400 at some books. Now is the time to buy on the Blue Devils.

Providence Friars Futures Odds

(Current Odds to Win NCAA Championship: +10000, UniBet)

Providence Friars guard Jared Bynum (4) reacts after defeating the St. John's Red Storm 86-82 at Carnesecca Arena | Sidelines
Providence Friars guard Jared Bynum (4) reacts after defeating the St. John’s Red Storm 86-82 at Carnesecca Arena. Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

What if I told you there was a team with a 20-2 record, leading a major conference (the Big East), with a non-conference win at Wisconsin, and wins over four ranked teams in its conference, and that you could get +10000 odds on them to win the national title? Well, there is, and that team is the No. 11 Providence Friars. 

Because so many of Providence’s games have been close this year–10-0 in games decided by single digits–oddsmakers believe they’ve had an extraordinary amount of luck, and that luck is bound to change. We’ll also see what they’re made of when they play Villanova next week, but if they beat the Wildcats, their odds are likely to shrink a bit. 

The Friars are also finding a bit of a secret weapon in sixth-man Jared Bynum. After scoring 19 points on the road at St. John’s last week, Bynum put up a career-high 32 at Georgetown over the weekend, giving Providence the depth they’ll need to compete in March.

Stock Down – UCLA and UConn

UCLA Bruins Futures Odds

(Current Odds to Win NCAA Championship: +1800, Bovada)

UCLA Bruins guard Johnny Juzang (3) shoots against Arizona State Sun Devils forward Jamiya Neal (55) during the first half at Desert Financial Arena | Sidelines
UCLA Bruins guard Johnny Juzang (3) shoots against Arizona State Sun Devils forward Jamiya Neal (55) during the first half at Desert Financial Arena. Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Odds have dropped a bit on UCLA, which is a good thing–especially after reaching the Final Four last year with a player like Johnny Juzang. But what concerns us about the Bruins wasn’t their loss at No. 7 Arizona last week (the teams each won on their home floor, after all). The larger concern was not being able to recover from that defeat in a loss at Arizona State. 

UCLA isn’t hitting as many 3-point shots as they were last year, and if their defense isn’t spectacular, they have struggled (like in an overtime loss to Oregon and their loss to Gonzaga, where they weren’t competitive in the first half). Five of the Bruins’ last nine games are on the road, including at crosstown rival USC and a three-game trip to Oregon, Oregon State, and Washington. 

If the Bruins struggle to win at least three of those games, they could drop to a potential No. 4 seed in the NCAA tournament, pitting them against a top team in a projected Sweet Sixteen matchup, which could spell trouble for UCLA. 

Connecticut Huskies Futures Odds

(Current Odds to Win NCAA Championship: +6500, UniBet)

Marquette Golden Eagles guard Darryl Morsell (32) dribbles against Connecticut Huskies forward Isaiah Whaley (5) in the second half at XL Center | Sidelines
Marquette Golden Eagles guard Darryl Morsell (32) dribbles against Connecticut Huskies forward Isaiah Whaley (5) in the second half at XL Center. David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

UConn feel to Creighton at home last week and then at Villanova, dropping from No. 17 to No. 24 in the AP top 25 poll this week. The Huskies started the season strong, namely with a 115-109 double overtime win over Auburn in the Bahamas that’s proven to be the Tigers’ only loss so far this season. The Huskies had close losses at Michigan State and West Virginia, but Big East play has been a bit of a struggle recently, posting a 6-4 record in the league but dropping two-straight. Their next two games? No. 18 Marquette and No. 25 Xavier, plus another date against Villanova awaits. 

UConn has had a nice turnaround in their first year back in the Big East, but it looks like it will be at least another year before the Huskies are in serious contention for an NCAA title.

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