Three NCAA basketball title contenders – and two interesting longshots

The NCAA basketball season is moving into the conference tournament portion of its season, and unlike last season when the COVID-19 pandemic caused massive disruptions, schedule changes, and saw an abnormal number of typical powerhouse teams struggle to mediocre records, this season seems to have returned to more of a sense of normalcy as March Madness approaches.

The 2022 men’s NCAA basketball tournament begins with selection Sunday on March 13, and after the 68 teams who qualify are announced, games kick off on March 15-16 with the First Four matchups. 

The first and second rounds are March 17-20, Sweet Sixteen is March 24-25, Elite Eight is March 26-27, Final Four is April 2, and the championship game will be played on April 4 in New Orleans. Tournament games are aired on CBS, TBS, TNT, and TruTV. 

Last season, the NCAA championship game featured the two teams that had been the best in the country all season in Gonzaga and Baylor. Gonzaga entered the game undefeated, but Baylor pulled off an impressive and convincing win to capture the national championship.

Baylor is once again having a good season, but they currently aren’t among the top five favorites to win the title according to NCAA basketball futures odds. With the season winding down, futures odds for national title picks seemed pretty stable – until all six of the top six teams in the country lost in the same weekend, creating some instability. As things start to get back to normal, here’s a look at the teams who are currently the three best bets for the national title.

Gonzaga (+400): At this point, a national championship is the only thing legendary coach Mark Few hasn’t accomplished in his otherwise brilliant coaching career. He lost some talent from last season’s national runner-up – Jalen Suggs and Corey Kispert were both first-round picks in the NBA Draft.

But Few reloaded with a team that still has significant talent, including freshman Chet Holmgren, who could be the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft.

Gonzaga is currently No. 1 in the country, even after a loss to St. Mary’s last week. They’ve only been slightly less dominant than last season’s team, with three losses so far this season. Holmgren, in addition to being a versatile offensive player, is a great rim protector and could win the Defensive Player of the Year award this season.

Guards Drew Timme and Andrew Nembhard, combined with Holmgren inside, will make the Bulldogs one of the toughest teams defend in the country. 

Arizona (+800): Arizona, like Gonzaga, took a bad loss last week – Arizona was upset by unranked Colorado – but wasn’t really penalized in the polls for it.

The Wildcats have a go-to star in Bennedict Mathurin, who leads the team in scoring, and a great complementary scorer in Azolas Tubelis, who averages 16 per game. They also have a great do-it-all player in Kerr Kriisa, who just had the first triple-double of any Arizona player since 2004.

The biggest question for Arizona will just be whether or not they can adjust to a tougher schedule in the tournament. The Wildcats have three losses, and quality wins over USC and UCLA, but their conference schedule this season hasn’t been a tough one.

Auburn (+1000): Auburn certainly has the swagger to make a deep NCAA Tournament run – the Tigers were recently booed passionately by Tennessee fans after dancing on the Vols logo before a game. But they also showed they’re prone to upsets. 

Auburn had risen to No. 1 in the national polls before a loss to Arkansas two weeks ago dropped them down a bit, followed by two more losses since then.

But the main reason they’ll be a solid pick to win a championship is the play of Jabari Smith.

Smith is averaging 16 points, 7 rebounds, a block, and steal per game while making over 40 percent of his three-pointers. Like Holmgren, he’s in the conversation to the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft and is a national player of the year candidate. With the success of Evan Mobley as an NBA rookie this season, a player with Smith’s size, shooting, and mobility will definitely draw favorable Mobley comparisons down the stretch. 

Auburn has three other players who average double-figures, but the biggest question with the team is their perimeter shooting. Even with Smith’s contribution, the Tigers shoot just 32 percent from three-point range as a team.

But March Madness isn’t about the favorites – it’s about the surprise teams. Here are two under-the-radar teams that could have impressive tournament runs.

Murray State: Calling a Mid-Major that has three tournament wins since 2010 and currently has an alum from one of those tournament teams in the NBA and is now an MVP candidate is a bit of a stretch. But Murray State is once again having a great season, has risen into the top 20 in national polls, and is definitely a team no one would want to face in the tournament.

Iona: The college might not be a household name, but their coach, Rick Pitino, certainly is. Iona beat Alabama this season when the Crimson Tide were ranked No. 10 in the country, and they also played Kansas tough. Once they get in the tournament, Pitino knows how to win, and their defense would make them a solid upset pick.