The Complete NCAAB Futures Odds Picture: Conference Championship Week

The up and down world that is regular-season conference play in men’s college basketball is behind us, and now it’s time for–with apologies to singer Andy Williams–the most wonderful time of the year: March, aka tournament season in college basketball! 

Most of the mid-major conferences have completed their tournaments and the automatic bids have been settled there. The larger conference tournaments begin this week, as teams will be fighting to keep up the momentum into the NCAA tournament, whereas others will try to stay on the good side of the bubble and make “The Big Dance” altogether.

While the NCAA tournament champion isn’t always the winner of their conference tournament, we’re looking for teams that are playing well as they get to tournament time and, at the same time, trying to stay away from teams who might have a good record but enter March not playing their best basketball.

Here’s our complete NCAAB futures odds update for conference tournament week, and we’ll be back again next week with an updated look once the brackets are out. 

Stock Up – Tennessee and Baylor

Tennessee Volunteers Futures Odds
(Current Odds to win NCAA Championship: +4000, BetMGM)

Tennessee wasn’t looking great at the end of January, coming off a blowout loss at Kentucky. But the Vols proved that they could play, beating Arizona on their home court in December. While they haven’t had a major win on the road, the Vols are playing some great basketball and took down all of the other SEC powers at home over the past month. That includes wins over the Wildcats (in dominating fashion), Auburn, and Arkansas. Taking their overall play into account, they rank fifth in Division 1 since Feb. 1, are ranked in the top-10 defensively, and the offense has improved to its best point of the season currently. 

The Vols are 23-7 and had four losses in the SEC. They tied with Kentucky for second place in the league, one game behind Auburn in the final standings. Tennessee won nine of its final 10 games, as the only blemish was a loss at Arkansas by a score of 58-48 that saw the Vols go ice-cold from the field. Most of the time when you hold a top-tier team to 58 points, you will win that game, so we’re writing that one off as a bad shooting day for Tennessee. Their other loss prior to that was 52-51 at Texas in late January, and those have been the only blemishes on Tennessee’s record since that 107-79 loss at Kentucky on Jan. 15. 

Tennessee’s other non-conference losses were to top-25 teams in Villanova and Texas Tech. We love the way the Volunteers are playing, and even if they get tripped up in Tampa this week, they are set up for a 2- or 3-seed in the NCAA tournament and can do some damage there. 

 Baylor Bears Futures Odds
(Current Odds to win NCAA Championship: +1200, UniBet)

We were selling Baylor a couple months ago when they had lost a couple of games and were still +900. Now, the Bears have worked their way out of that slump, finished strong to earn a share of the Big 12 regular-season championship, and are at slightly better odds at +1200 now. 

With a very difficult Big 12 tournament facing the Bears, it’s hard to believe that even with a loss there that their odds will drop much further than they are now, so now’s the time to scoop up the Bears in case they win the Big 12 tournament and become a heavier favorite to win the NCAA title. 

After opening the defense of their 2021 NCAA championship with a 15-0 start, Baylor went 6-5 over their next 11 contests. Since a loss at Texas Tech on Feb. 16, however, the Bears are 5-0 and looking more like their normal selves, including wins over Kansas and Texas. 

Looking back at that slump, Baylor was playing either without or with a limited version of James Akinjo. He suffered a tailbone injury, but he seems recovered from it now, as he scored 19 and 20 points in his last two games, respectively. 

After an opening round game against Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament, Baylor will likely face Texas Tech for the third time this season after the Red Raiders beat them twice already. That will be a key one to watch to see if the Bears are fully back and ready to defend their national championship in a couple weeks. 

Stock Up Honorable Mention – North Carolina Tar Heels (+10000 UniBet)

While we’re not sure Hubert Davis’s team can cut down the nets in early April, hats off to North Carolina for going into Cameron Indoor Stadium and not only beating but soundly defeating Duke in head coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final home game coaching the Blue Devils. 

Stock Down – Wisconsin and Arizona

Wisconsin Badgers Futures Odds
(Current Odds to win NCAA Championship: +5000, DraftKings Sportsbook)

After beating Purdue at home last week, things looked great for the Badgers. All they had to do was beat Nebraska (who had three wins in the Big Ten coming into the regular-season finale) to win the Big Ten regular season title. But not only did they lose to the Cornhuskers, the Badgers lost star Johnny Davis due to injury. While it’s unclear if Davis will be ready to play in the upcoming Big Ten or NCAA tournaments, even if he does play, he could be limited. 

In a matter of one game, a team went from potential conference champions to now having several question marks. The scariest part is that Davis missed two games this year. In one, Wisconsin lost at home to Providence, and in the other, they edged out a win over Nicholls State. 

The Badgers are currently a 2-seed in most bracket projections, but a poor showing in the Big Ten tournament will drop them to at least a 3 and even further if Davis’s health is still a question by time Selection Sunday rolls around. That could make their path to the Final Four a bit tougher, so we’re selling the Badgers now. 

 Arizona Wildcats Futures Odds
(Current Odds to win NCAA Championship: +700, Caesars Sportsbook)

Arizona is on a roll, so why are we selling the Wildcats? The Wildcats are clearly the class of the Pac-12, and we don’t expect them to have many problems in the upcoming conference tournament. Sure, there’s a chance UCLA could beat them in the finals, but even if they do, the Wildcats are still going to be around where they are in the odds to win the NCAA tournament, and at +700, we don’t feel that’s great value for Arizona.

Outside of splitting the season series with the Bruins and soundly defeating USC twice, the Pac-12 was a bit weak this year, so outside of those games and non-conference tests at Illinois (win) and Tennessee (loss), we haven’t seen Arizona be tested on a regular basis like we see happening in the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC this year.

One bracket projection has Arizona as a 1-seed. To reach the Final Four under this scenario, they would have to beat the following teams: North Carolina, Texas (or Providence), Purdue, and Auburn. 

Do you see the Wildcats beating all of those quality teams just to make the Final Four? Then they would have to still beat two more top teams to win the title. The Wildcats are good this year, but thinking about them beating four or five quality teams in a row seems like a bit too much to gamble on with the low odds.