NCAA Championship Game Betting Preview

It will be one of the most anticipated national championship games in NCAA Tournament history. The Gonzaga Bulldogs will be looking to complete a 32-0 season and become the first undefeated national champion since the Indiana Hoosiers did it in 1976. Both teams are also trying to win their first ever national title.

The line opened at Gonzaga -4.5 and has stayed there, though it seems like most sports books are taking in more money on Baylor than Gonzaga.

Gonzaga is coming off the elation of winning an all-time great March Madness game with Jalen Suggs’ overtime buzzer-beater against UCLA. But, the ‘Zags were severely tested against the Bruins and all five Gonzaga starters played at least 38 minutes on Saturday night.

Meanwhile, Baylor led by 25 points at the half against Houston and they coasted to victory. Davion Mitchell did play 36 minutes and Jared Butler logged 33, but no other Bear reached 30 minutes. Baylor also played the early game and their game ended four hours earlier than Gonzaga’s did, giving them significantly more rest for this game which has a short turnaround.

The last time Gonzaga was favored by only 4.5 points was in December when they went to Iowa and won 99-88. Their only other line under -7.5 all season was in their season opener against Kansas, way back on November 26, when they won 102-90 as a -4 favorite. Gonzaga is 16-13-2 against the spread this season and covered in their first four tournament games before running into UCLA.

This will be the first time all season that Baylor is an underdog. The Bears failed to cover in their opening tournament games, beating the sixteen seed Hartford by 24 points as a -25.5 favorite, but have covered in all four games since, winning each game by at least nine points. The Bears were favored by five points against Houston and won 78-59. Baylor is 19-10 ATS this season.

These teams last played in the previous NCAA Tournament, the 2019 version, when they faced off in the second round. Gonzaga was the one seed and Baylor was the nine seed, and the Bulldogs won 83-71, though they were favored by 14.5 points.

As far as the key players in that game who are still here, Corey Kispert had 16 points and 7 rebounds for Gonzaga, while Jared Butler scored 11 for Baylor, though he shot one for eight from three-point range. Mark Vital, who averages 5.6 points per game for Baylor this year, did score 17 points and grab 8 rebounds in that game, as well.

As far as the over/under is concerned, the number is currently at 159.5 for Monday night’s game. Gonzaga went under the exact same number against Creighton in the Sweet Sixteen, winning 83-65, for a 148 point total. Gonzaga actually faced totals of 160 points or more ten times during the regular season and went 5-5 in over/unders in those games. This is the highest number in any Baylor game this season. The ‘Zags are 16-15 in totals this season, while the Bears are 18-11.

Gonzaga is the leading scoring team in the nation at 91.6 points per game, while Baylor is sixth, scoring 82.8. Gonzaga is the best field goal shooting team in the country, hitting over 55% of their shots, and they continue to have the highest two-point field goal shooting percentage in college basketball history, after hitting 30 of 42 from two against UCLA. Baylor is the best three-point shooting team in the country, nailing 41.2% of their triples.

Gonzaga would have hit the over on this number only once in the tournament, while Baylor Baylor last had a game top 159.5 points on March 7 against Texas Tech, eight games ago, winning 88-73.

The NCCAB Odds Bets:

Baylor (+4.5, -105) against Gonzaga (William Hill)

Under 159.5 (-108) Points (Points Bet)