March Madness Sweet 16 Preview and Bets

The 2020-21 NCAA men’s basketball season has been one of the most difficult in history because of the COVID-19 pandemic, and impacted teams throughout the regular season. NCAA tournament mainstays like Duke and Kentucky didn’t even make the tournament, and another longtime participant, Michigan State, only narrowly got in and quickly bowed out to UCLA in a play-in game.

In the first weekend of the tournament, four teams seeded 13 or worse made it to the round of 32 for the first time in NCAA Tournament history – Oral Roberts (15 seed) upset Ohio State; Abilene Christian (14 seed) beat Texas; North Texas (13 seed) beat Purdue; and Ohio (13 seed) beat Virginia.

Of that group, only Oral Roberts advanced to the Sweet 16. But they’re not the only Cinderella team to make it that far. Oregon, a seven seed, impressively knocked off No. 2 seeded Iowa to advance. UCLA, an 11-seed, was down by five points late in the play-in game against Michigan State before pulling out an impressive comeback win. Since, they’ve cruised to the Sweet 16 with wins over BYU and Abilene Christian. Syracuse, an 11-seed, used their patented zone defense to upset West Virginia and advance. And the Midwest region matchup between 8-seeded Loyola Chicago and 12-seeded Oregon State features two teams most didn’t expect to survive the first weekend.

Beyond the upsets, though, who is still here? Well, two No. 1 seeds survived the first weekend – No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga has yet to play a close game, which is in line with their regular season dominance. No. 1 seed Michigan has had a bit more of a challenge, needing a comeback to beat LSU in the round of 32. 

Michigan’s presence as the only Big Ten team in the Sweet 16 is somewhat surprising, though, as the conference led all leagues with nine teams making it in the field of 68. No. 1 seed Illinois was upset by Loyola Chicago in round two, and Rutgers, Maryland, Iowa, and Wisconsin all went out in the second round as well. Michigan State lost its play-in game and No. 2 seed Ohio State and Purdue also lost in round one. 

The PAC 12 had a good showing, with four teams making it into the Sweet 16.

Here’s a look at the Sweet 16 matchups:

• No. 12 Oregon State vs. No. 8 Loyola Chicago
• No. 5 Villanova vs. No. 1 Baylor
• No. 15 Oral Roberts vs. No. 3 Arkansas
• No. 11 Syracuse vs. No. 2 Houston
• No. 5 Creighton vs. No. 1 Gonzaga
• No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 6 USC
• No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 1 Michigan
• No. 11 UCLA vs. No. 2 Alabama

With so many lower-seeded teams advancing, finding the best teams to wager on advancing isn’t easy. Here are a few teams worth betting on the rest of the way, though.

Roll with Loyola

There was evidence before the tournament started that Loyola Chicago’s 8-seed may have been too low. Their seeding was undoubtedly based on playing a schedule devoid of marquee opponents, but Loyola has an experienced team and coaching staff and an absolutely suffocating defense. Teams that can dictate the pace of the game, slow it down, and keep the score low always tend to find ways to win in March, and Loyola does all of those things exceptionally well. They also lucked into a favorable matchup against Oregon State. Don’t underestimate them either, though – they took out a 4 and a 5 seed on their path to this point, winning both by double-figures. Loyola can’t overlook the Beavers, but if they do what they always do by slowing the pace and defending they should advance here.

Can Gonzaga break through?

Few programs in the country have had as much sustained success as Gonzaga over the last two decades, with one notable exception – they haven’t won a championship.

Gonzaga has suffered some absolutely brutal upsets in the tournament, but this year’s team actually seems upset-proof. They have four capable scorers, a reliable bench, and an offense that has rarely been in a competitive game all season. They are four wins from a championship and the two other top seeds in their bracket, No. 2 Iowa and No. 3 Kansas, have already been eliminated. Anything less than a championship for them is probably a disappointing end to their season, but expect them at the very least to get to the Final Four.

Watch out for Villanova

Baylor lost only twice all season and, with two double-digit wins so far in the tournament, gives no indication they should be on upset-watch. But Villanova has a championship coach in Jay Wright and their three-point shooting is hot right now – they hit 15 three-pointers in their second-round win over North Texas. They beat three ranked teams during the season and are dangerous.