Five Bubble Teams Who Will Be Nervous on Selection Sunday

The NCAA men’s basketball season is winding down, which means the annual tradition of trying to forecast which bubble teams will make it into the NCAA Tournament and which ones won’t is upon us.

As in any season, that is somewhat dependent on what happens in conference tournaments. In the Mid-Major conferences, if multiple surprise teams win those tournaments and take the automatic bids available, that obviously reduces the number of spots available for bubble teams from other conferences.

Here’s a look at five teams who will probably be sweating things right down to the wire on Selection Sunday.

Oregon: The Ducks advanced to the Sweet 16 last season, but they currently are fourth in the PAC-12 and are among ESPN’s projections for first four out among tournament selections. 

A loss to Washington this week all but ended Oregon’s hopes of getting an at-large bid, so they’re down to a miraculous run in the conference tournament as likely their only route into March Madness.

The Ducks do have a win over USC this season and had a chance to beat UCLA last month before losing on a buzzer-beater, so pulling off some upsets in the PAC-12 tourney isn’t out of the question for them.

Memphis: Penny Hardaway’s team is currently projected among the last four in according to ESPN Bracketology, but USA Today has them among the first four out. 

The Tigers are 18-9 overall and 12-5 in conference play. They also have won eight of nine games prior to their regular season-closing matchup with Houston and have three quadrant one wins this season. 

Memphis hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament in seven seasons, and Hardaway things they should already be in based on their solid regular season.

“For me, we’ve done enough.  I really feel like we have.  Beating Houston at Houston.  Beating Alabama at home when they were the hottest team in the country.  We’ve done some things that some other teams haven’t,” Hardaway told WREG in Memphis.  “Our Quad 1 record is pretty good, our wins.  If that’s what they’re going by then we’ve done a fantastic job in that area. Yeah, we lost some games early, very early in the season.  Then we had injuries when conference started but ever since we’ve been kind of full staff, with the exception of Emoni, we’ve only lost one game together.  That should show everyone who we really are.”

Michigan: The story of Michigan’s season has been inconsistency. After an ugly confrontation between coaches after a loss to Wisconsin, Juwan Howard was suspended for the rest of the regular season. Michigan rallied without him, and notched an impressive win over in-state rival Michigan State earlier this week … only to follow that up with a loss to Iowa.

The Wolverines are still safe, according to ESPN. But CBS currently projects them to be among the first four out. 

Michigan benefits from playing in the tough Big 10 conference, but they would definitely breathe easier with a couple of quality wins in the conference tournament.

Florida: ESPN currently has the Gators among its first four out of the tournament, while CBS has them among the last four in.

Florida is one of the handful of bubble teams with opportunity in front of them, though. They have a remaining regular season game against Kentucky as well as a tough SEC Tournament ahead of them, and if they notch a few wins together in that stretch, expect them to get in on Selection Sunday.

Virginia Tech: ESPN currently has the Hokies among its first four out. Virginia Tech has played well late in the season, but their biggest issue is they are lacking quality wins, and their conference tournament may not help much in that department.

“They need more Quad 1 wins, it’s going to be hard to get them,” analyst Andy Katz told NCAA.com.