College Basketball’s Best Bets December 28: Notre Dame vs Pitt, Baylor vs Northwestern State, and More

A full slate of college basketball returns tonight (COVID-19 pending) after only a handful of games were played over the past several days surrounding the Christmas holiday. This week generally features the last of the big boys taking on smaller, non-conference opponents, and we have several of those games tonight with monster spreads attached to them.

As is also becoming the norm over the past couple of weeks, there are also some postponements and cancellations tonight, including conference matchups Xavier vs. UConn and Cincinnati vs. Houston.

But there’s still plenty to look forward to for the college basketball fan and bettor, so let’s take a look at our best bets tonight for NCAAB hoops.

Northwestern State Demons vs. (1) Baylor Bears

The Bet: Baylor -38.5

Yes, Baylor comes into this game looking nearly unbeatable as the defending national champions and on an undefeated 11-0 start to this college basketball season. But they are also a beast against the spread, going 8-2-1 ATS so far this year. Don’t let the monster spread scare you in this one, as Northwestern State is just 4-6 ATS (3-10 overall), which includes three 40-point losses this season–95-48 at SMU, 99-58 at Houston, and 89-49 at LSU.

Crushing teams is also something Baylor has done with regularity. The Bears have won by 37 or more over the following teams: Nicholls, Central Arkansas, Stanford, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and Alcorn State. There’s no reason to think that the Demons won’t be added to that list, especially since this is their final non-conference tune-up before Big 12 play begins, and it starts with a bang on New Year’s Day when the Bears visit No. 8 Iowa State.

Baylor’s defense is allowing just 55.8 points per contest, while Northwestern State is allowing a shade under 80 points per game. With the Bears putting up a scoring average of 82 points per game, expect them to score in the high 80s or 90s here, which means holding NWST into the 50s seems reasonable and will put them in range for a cover.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

The Bet: Under 127

Notre Dame and Pitt meet in an ACC matchup with both teams 0-1 in conference play. Notre Dame has a solid win over Kentucky on its resume, while the Panthers have struggled so far this year, beating St. John’s but falling to three mid-majors along with West Virginia and Minnesota on their way to a 5-7 record.

Pitt has, however, won three of their last four thanks to a defense that’s holding teams to fewer than 60 points in five of its last six games. John Hugley is also emerging into a weapon that the Panthers can rely on, as he’s scoring 14.5 points per game and pulling down 8 rebounds per contest. Femi Odukale had 28 in last Tuesday’s 64-55 win over Jacksonville.

The Irish are averaging 70 points per game, but when you look at their game-by-game totals, most of their high-scoring contests came against mid-majors. When facing a power conference opponent, Notre Dame (6-5) has scored below its average five of six times, with the outlier being 72 in an 82-72 loss at Illinois.

Looking at over-under trends, the under has hit in four of the last five games for Notre Dame, and Pitt has gone under in six of their nine home games and in eight of 12 overall. Yes, the number of 127 seems low, but don’t let it scare you. Reasonable final scores of 66-60, 64-62, and 65-59 would all be under the number.

Yale Bulldogs vs. St. Mary’s Gaels

The Bet: St. Mary’s -12.5

It’s easy to overlook St. Mary’s in the WCC thanks to rival Gonzaga becoming one of the power programs in the country, but the Gaels have been a successful mid-major program. They are 11-3 on the year and 8-0 at home when they host Yale of the Ivy League tonight, as the Bulldogs are making the cross-country trip for the away date.

The Gaels are 8-5 against the spread this season and 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing as the betting favorite, as they are over the Bulldogs this evening. Their non-conference highlight was a run to the Maui Invitational finals, having defeated Notre Dame and Oregon before falling to Wisconsin in the championship game. St. Mary’s is led by Mathias Tass, who is scoring 12.7 points per game on 63.5% shooting, and Kyle Bowen’s 6.5 rebounds per contest. While they are putting up just 67.5 points per game, they are allowing only 58 per contest, which is 11 fewer than Yale’s average.

The Bulldogs come into this road game having lost three of their last four and playing their first game in two weeks. Azar Swain has had a nice start to the season for Yale, averaging 19.3 points per game. The road has not been kind to the Bulldogs, however, as they are 1-3 both straight up and against the spread away from home.

Yale has dropped five of their last six against the spread, while St. Mary’s is 5-2 ATS at home. They have the talent edge and playing against a team that took a cross-country trip to play the game will give the Gaels even more of an edge, as they shouldn’t have any problem winning this game by double-digits.