Best College Basketball Bets January 21: Big 10 Shines with (14) Michigan State vs (8) Wisconsin

Fourth-ranked Purdue took on its second loss in the Big Ten last night, falling on the road at Indiana, and now the three teams in the league that all are on top of the standings with one loss are in action tonight, two pitted against each other in the marquee game of the evening. 

Looking back at last night’s late action on the West Coast, No. 1 Gonzaga handled a solid San Francisco team, while top-25 teams Arizona, UCLA, and USC all won on the road. 

Taking a glance at Saturday, the game of the day comes at 1 p.m. Eastern time when No. 12 Kentucky plays at No. 2 Auburn, and No. 5 Baylor will play at Oklahoma, and the Sooners give everyone a tough game on their home court, as evidenced by Kansas escaping with a three-point win earlier in the week. 

But first things first–let’s take a look at our best bets for this Friday night in men’s college basketball. 

(14) Michigan State Spartans vs. (8) Wisconsin Badgers

The Bet: Wisconsin -3.5

Michigan State plays its first game since a stunning home loss to Northwestern last Saturday by traveling to Madison to play No. 8 Wisconsin, one of the nation’s hottest teams that’s riding a seven-game winning streak. Sparty will have to contend with Johnny Davis, one of the top scorers in the nation by averaging 22 points per game and also leads his team with 7.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game. 

Both teams’ averages are very close. They are each allowing 65 points per game, and Michigan State has a two-point edge in scoring, 74 to 72. Wisconsin has surpassed its scoring average in four of its last five games, while Michigan State has done so three times. 

The Spartans have won eight of the last 10 meetings, but Wisconsin is on a two-game winning streak after dropping eight in a row. Many of those games were in East Lansing or at the Big Ten Tournament, as the Badgers have won four of the last six meetings at the Kohl Center, dating back to 2014.

Looking at the teams’ last five games, the Spartans are just 1-4 against the spread, whereas Wisconsin has covered in all five of their most recent games. Given that this game is on their home floor, we like the Badgers to keep rolling.  

(17) Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Maryland Terrapins

The Bet: Illinois -6.5

Illinois is looking to rebound after their six-game winning streak was snapped in a double-overtime loss at home to Purdue on Monday. The Illini now visit a Maryland team that showed some improvement after switching head coaches under interim boss Danny Manning, but the Terps have now five of their last six in Big Ten play. 

The teams met in Champaign on Jan. 6 in what was a 76-64 win for Illinois. Maryland is 1-3 since with their only win being a double-OT victory at Northwestern. They’ve lost at home to both Rutgers and Wisconsin by 11 points each in their last two games in College Park. 

The Illini are led by center Kofi Cockburn, who is leading the team with 21 points and 12 rebounds per game. The big man scored 23 on 9-of-12 shooting and had a double-double with 18 rebounds in the team’s matchup earlier this month. Donta Scott led Maryland with 17 points and seven rebounds in that game.

Illinois is scoring 10 more points per game and allowing three fewer than Maryland’s averages on the season. The Illini are also 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games and have covered in four of their last six games against Maryland. Home court hasn’t meant much for the Terrapins either, as they are 6-5 straight up and just 2-9 ATS at home this year. The Illini have proven to be one of the better teams in the Big Ten this year, and Maryland has struggled for much of the season. We have to play the trends and bet on those to continue tonight.

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Nevada Wolfpack

The Bet: Fresno State to Win (+105)

Fresno State has been dominant at home this year and not as much on the road, but they are 1.5-point underdogs at a Nevada team that has covered at home just once this year. The teams meet tonight in Mountain West Conference action.

The Bulldogs have won three in a row, including at UNLV last Friday, since a COVID-19 pause in early January. They are led by forward Orlando Robinson, who is averaging 19.3 points and nearly nine rebounds per game. Nevada counters with guard Grant Sherfield, who is putting up 19.5 points and 6.5 assists per contest.

This will be Nevada’s fourth game in 10 days, and they are 1-2 in the previous three, losing at home to both Boise State and Wyoming in that span. The Wolfpack is 1-6 ATS at home this year and 4-10 ATS overall. Fresno State, meanwhile, has been solid against the spread, going 12-4 ATS but only 3-3 ATS on the road. 

Even with the shaky road record, we like Fresno State, and with such a small point spread, you may as well take the extra value and take the Bulldogs on the money line to make a little more than you wager on the win.