Several ranked teams, including a trio of SEC teams on the road in Tennessee, Arkansas, and Alabama, passed tests on the road last night, but one who didn’t was No. 8 Villanova, and their 71-69 loss to No. 21 Connecticut has a wide-reaching impact on the Big East standings
The loss sent the Wildcats to 14-4 in the league, two games in the loss column behind 12-2 Providence. Nova has a win over the Friars and the two play again to end the regular season, but if Providence takes care of business prior to that meeting in Philadelphia, it won’t matter as the Friars would be the regular season Big East champs.
The Huskies, meanwhile, improved its stake in the league too with the win, jumping into sole possession of third place, as they have successfully shaken off a stretch where they lost three of four to have now won four-straight games.
Going back to Providence, they tip-off our look at tonight’s best bets in men’s college basketball.
The Friars have been living closer to the razor’s edge than they have been all season, coming back from a large deficit twice in their last three games to beat both Butler and DePaul in overtime. Sandwiched in between was a five-point loss to Villanova; their only such loss in a game contested by five or fewer points all season.
It’s all led to Providence (22-3, 12-2 Big East) not getting much respect from the oddsmakers all season, and that continues tonight when Xavier (17-9, 7-8 Big East) comes into the Dunkin Donuts Center. Despite struggling to the tune of losses in four of their last five games, the Musketeers are just 2.5-point underdogs tonight.
The Friars are 14-1 at home this year, and Nate Watson is coming off a 22-point performance in that 71-70 win on the road at Butler over the weekend. In a 65-62 win in Cincinnati last month, Al Durham scored 22 for Providence in that tight win over Xavier. The Friars have also covered in eight of the last 10 meetings between the schools.
Both teams are giving up 70 points per game on average in their last 10 games, but Xavier’s offense has struggled, scoring 68 PPG in that span compared to Providence’s 75 PPG.
If Xavier were playing better, we would understand the tight spread here, but with the Musketeers struggling, it’s tough to bet against the Friars only having to lay 2.5 points.
The Fighting Irish’s hopes of winning the ACC regular season title likely went up in smoke with a loss at Wake Forest over the weekend, but Notre Dame (19-8, 12-4 ACC) has a chance to finish strong with three of their final four games at home against unranked teams — starting tonight against Syracuse.
The Orange (15-12, 9-7 ACC) have won six of their last seven games but play tonight for the third time in five days, which could be a big ask for a team that doesn’t rely on its bench often and had four starters play more than 40 minutes in an overtime win over Georgia Tech on Monday night.
This is the first meeting of the season between old Big East rivals, and Syracuse has won seven of the last 10 matchups. But the Orange are just 3-6 on the road this year and also 3-6 as underdogs. The Irish, meanwhile, are 11-1 on their home court and 13-2 as the betting favorite. The Irish are also on an impressive 11-4 run against the spread.
Syracuse is likely bound for the NIT this year, but if they can run the table — including tonight and then Saturday against No. 7 Duke — they may play themselves into the conversation. But this will be a tough contest tonight against a Notre Dame team that shoots well, and Syracuse’s defense has struggled for most of the season. Add on the fatigue of playing for the third time since this past Saturday, and we can’t see the Orange keeping up with Notre Dame.
Lots has changed since then-No. 21 LSU beat then-No. 16 Kentucky in Baton Rouge on Jan. 4. After winning its next two to improve to 15-1, the Tigers then lost six of their next seven games. After a three-game winning streak, LSU lost its last game at South Carolina this past Saturday. While LSU is considered a lock for the NCAA tournament, it’s tough to see things going well tonight in Rupp Arena, where the Wildcats are 16-0 on the season.
Kentucky (22-5, 11-3 SEC) is coming off a 90-81 win and cover over Alabama on Saturday and improved to 20-1 as the betting favorite. They’re getting 7.5 points over LSU, which seems reasonable against a Tigers team that’s lost five of its last six on the road and has allowed at least 70 points in five of those seven games, which is eight points above their points-allowed average of 62 for the season. The Wildcats are averaging 80 points per game and won’t be taking LSU lightly after the result the last time the teams played.
The Tigers, currently on a 2-7 against-the-spread slump in their last nine games, might find something tonight against Kentucky, but we see good value in one of the best teams in the country playing on their home floor, where they have been stellar all season.
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