Western Conference Finals Preview

The second round of the 2022 NBA Playoffs delivered some mild surprises. Both of last year’s NBA Finals teams, the Phoenix Suns and defending champion Milwaukee Bucks, were eliminated in seven games in their respective matchups, guaranteeing we won’t have a Finals rematch.

Now, out West, the league’s most recent dynasty, the Golden State Warriors, returns to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2019. That year was the last of a five-year stretch in which the Warriors had advanced to the Finals every season, winning the championship in three of those five seasons. 

They’ll be playing a Dallas Mavericks team with an ascendant young star in Luka Doncic. Dallas is playing in its first Western Conference Finals since the team won the 2011 NBA championship.

The West Finals start on Wednesday, May 18. Here’s a look at our predictions for the series.

Golden State vs. Dallas: Unlike the East where the top two seeds advanced to the conference Finals, the West’s top two seeds were both eliminated in round two. That leaves a matchup between the veteran-laden Warriors and the relatively inexperienced Mavericks.

Doncic has been a terrific playoff performer in his career, but until this season, that hasn’t translated to series wins. In 23 career playoff games, Doncic has averaged 33 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists, and 2 steals per game while shooting 48 percent overall and 37 percent from three-point range.

He had his first breakthrough this season, with series wins in the first and second rounds. To keep that going, he’ll have to lead the Mavs to an upset over a team with significant championship experience.

The Golden State core of Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson enters the series with a 5-0 record as a unit in the Western Conference Finals. 

The Warriors enter the series with superior depth, as Jordan Poole, Jonathan Kuminga, Otto Porter Jr, Andrew Wiggins, and Kevon Looney have all contributed thus far in the playoffs. Poole, in particular, has been a go-to player as Curry and Thompson have both had some inconsistencies with their perimeter shooting in the postseason. 

The Mavericks rely on Jalen Brunson to provide secondary scoring to Doncic. Brunson struggled for part of round two, but was able to put together strong scoring games late in the series to help the Mavs upset Phoenix. 

Expect Golden State to make things tough on Doncic. Green, Thompson, and Wiggins are all good defenders who can try and force the ball out of Doncic’s hands. If he draws significant attention, Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie will have to be big factors in the series for Dallas to advance. 

PREDICTION: This has been a fun run for Dallas, but the Warriors have too much depth and experience. Expect Golden State to win in five games.