Were The Sportsbooks Right About The NBA Draft?

The 2022 NBA Draft provided players, sportsbooks, bettors, and fans with a wildly memorable night. 58 prospects heard their names called over the course of the evening, joining the ranks of NBA players hoping to eventually hoist the Larry O’Brien championship trophy. Many teams remained active in trades, with some flipping veterans that will no doubt have an effect NBA futures for next season.

The flurry of trades on Thursday night certainly made things interesting, albeit hard to follow at times, for fans. The shakeup at the top of the draft brought a boon for some bettors willing to risk once-long odds with Duke’s Paolo Banchero. Other selections found the sportsbooks to be the big winners. 

With NBA Odds shifting to the season ahead, here’s a look at some of the more memorable happenings at the draft from a betting perspective.

Topsy-Turvy Top-5 

For months, the top-3 of the 2022 NBA Draft seemed etched in stone. The Orlando Magic would select Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr. No. 1 overall. Oklahoma City would take Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren at No. 2, and Houston would land Banchero at No. 3. But in the final days leading up to the draft, there was significant movement in Banchero’s odds to be the No. 1 overall selection despite not working out with the Magic. 

Just hours before the draft, Caesars still listed Smith Jr. as the favorite (-225), with Banchero closing in at +175. BetMGM remained one of the strongest favoring Smith Jr., listing him -500 to be the top pick with Banchero behind at +190. DraftKings (-425) and UniBet (-345) also favored Smith Jr mere hours before the event. 

ESPN NBA Insider Adrian Wojnarowski had tweeted Thursday morning that the order seemed set with Smith Jr., Holmgren, and Banchero going 1-2-3, but by late Thursday afternoon and into the evening, things had changed considerably from a betting perspective. 

With Smith Jr. going No. 3 overall to Houston, bettors that took his +350 odds at either DraftKings and FanDuel, which were available just hours before the draft began, went home happy.  

Another wrinkle in the topsy-turvy top-5 came with Sacramento’s pick at No. 4 overall. Draft analysis and betting consensus alike agreed that Purdue’s Jaden Ivey, who some felt could go as high as No. 2 overall, seemed like a lock at No. 4. While the Kings did not present the best roster fit for Ivey, rumors swirled about a possible trade to this draft class’s best guard prospect. 

Caesars and DraftKings listed Ivey’s No. 4 overall odds at -200, with BetMGM listing -225. FanDuel had Ivey’s odds for No. 4 overall at -210 just hours before the draft, but UniBet seemed most certain in the run-up, listing -265. But the Kings swerved everyone, opting for Iowa forward Keegan Murray with their pick instead of Ivey or a trade. 

Murray ran second behind Ivey for odds to be selected fourth overall, seeing +130 odds at Caesars, +150 at BetMGM and DraftKings, +155 at FanDuel, and +160 at UniBet. Some mocks placed Murray in Sacramento, though. 

In the hours before the draft, these sportsbooks listed Arizona guard Bennedict Mathurin with shorter odds to be No. 5 overall to the Detroit Pistons than Ivey. Mathurin sported +175 odds at DraftKings, +180 at Caesars, and +190 at both BetMGM and FanDuel. Ivey, meanwhile, saw +225 at BetMGM and DraftKings, +300 at Caesars, and +330 at FanDuel. 

Late Lottery Betting Shakeups 

The NBA Draft lottery stretches to pick 14. And while most of the betting favorites found their way to the assumed landing spots, there were a few twists and turns along the path. Two trades shook up the late lottery, as did an uncharacteristic reach from the San Antonio Spurs. 

Mathurin entered the proceedings as the betting favorite to go No. 6 overall, which is exactly what happened. Sportsbooks seemed split in the run-up to the draft on who would go seventh and eighth. G League Ignite guard Dyson Daniels stood as the favorite for No. 7 at most sportsbooks, holding a slight edge in odds over Kentucky’s Shaedon Sharpe. DraftKings (+150) and FanDuel (+140) had Daniels ahead of Sharpe (+170 and +150). 

Caesars listed Sharpe’s draft position over/under at 7.5, favoring the over at -180. But Sharpe went seventh to Portland and Daniels went eighth to New Orleans. In the leadup to the draft, Caesars gave Daniels +300 odds to land in New Orleans, their second-best odds behind French forward Ousmane Dieng (+250). 

The top-10 finished with the Spurs selecting Baylor freshman Jeremy Sochan at No. 9 and the Washington Wizards taking Wisconsin guard Johnny Davis at No. 10, who was the betting favorite at that spot. 

Caesars listed Sochan’s draft position over/under at 11.5, favoring the under -160. DraftKings had his over/under at 12.5, favoring the under -225. DraftKings had Sochan at +500 to be the No. 9 pick, fifth on their list. Sochan saw +135 odds at FanDuel and +175 at DraftKings to be a top-10 pick. 

The remainder of the lottery saw the New York Knicks take Dieng at No. 11, the Thunder take Santa Clara wing Jalen Williams at No. 12, the Charlotte Hornets take Memphis center Jalen Duren at No. 13, and the Cleveland Cavaliers take Kansas senior Ochai Agbaji at No. 14. 

The Knicks selecting Dieng surprised some, considering DraftKings listed his odds to be the first pick by the Knicks at +900. But it turns out New York made the selection for the Thunder, who sent the Knicks future first rounds picks for the French forward. 

OKC then selecting Jalen Williams No. 12 also shocked, especially since his draft position over/under at was set at 15.5, with DraftKings favoring the over in that spot -140. Most sportsbooks pegged the over at 10.5 for Jalen Duren, and the Memphis big man found himself shipped off to Detroit in another trade. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, took this class’s top senior, Agbaji, who was the betting favorite to be Cleveland’s pick at DraftKings (+250)

Other NBA Draft First Round Betting Surprises

The final 16 picks of the 2022 NBA Draft’s first round featured six selections that were used in part of a trade package. Some of those players donned the draft cap of one team only to find out they’d start their professional careers with another club. That’s not to mention 10 of the 28 selections in the second round that were traded. 

The Chicago Bulls drafted Arizona wing Dalen Terry at No. 18 overall after seeing the players favored to be their first pick (Jalen Williams +500, Tari Eason +600) come off the board earlier. In the hours before the draft, Terry sported +2500 odds to be Chicago’s pick at DraftKings and saw 15 players with shorter odds in that NBA Draft prop bet. 

Auburn center Walker Kessler, who went No. 22 overall to Memphis before being traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves, beat his draft position over/under. Caesars listed it at 24.5, favoring the over at -130. DraftKings also favored the over 24.5 for Kessler at -145, and UniBet favored it at -155. 

The Spurs used their third first-round pick of the night, No. 25 overall, on Notre Dame freshman Blake Wesley. The guard saw his draft position over/under set at 21.5 at most sportsbooks, with Caesars favoring the under in that spot at -160. The over there saw +130 odds. UniBet favored the under as well, at -148, with the over at +115. DraftKings favored Wesley (-175) to go before Terry (+140) in the run-up to Thursday night’s proceedings. 

One of the biggest draft slides ended late in the first round when the Timberwolves traded for the No. 29 pick overall and selected Kentucky guard TyTy Washington. Most sportsbooks set Washington’s draft position over/under at 20.5. UniBet favored the under in that spot at -121, with Caesars listing the under at -110. DraftKings set the over/under at 19.5, favoring the over at -225. 

Three players considered underdogs to be first round picks at DraftKings ended up in the top-30. David Roddy (+275) went No. 23 overall to the Philadelphia 76ers before getting traded to Memphis. Patrick Baldwin Jr. (+250) went No. 28 overall to Golden State. Peyton Watson (+500) went No. 30 overall to the Thunder before being traded to Denver. 

NBA Draft Prop Bet Specials 

The 2022 NBA Draft featured a number of intriguing draft props betting specials some of which the sportsbooks hit on, while others bettors landed big wins. 

UniBet and BetRivers featured several school-specific prop bets, including one that listed the over/under for players selected in the first round from Ohio State University at 1.5. Both sportsbooks favored the over, listing -1000 odds there and setting the odds for the under at +550. 

Malaki Branham proved to be the only Buckeye to go in the first round, though, getting selected No. 20 overall by the San Antonio Spurs. The other Ohio State prospect most assumed would go in the first round was forward E.J. Liddell, but he didn’t get selected until pick No. 41 in the second. 

Another school-specific prop dealt with the University of Kansas. UniBet and BetRivers set the over/under for players selected in the first round from Kansas at 1.5, favoring the under -155. The over held +110 odds ahead of the draft, and the Jayhawks ultimately had two players, Ochai Agbaji (No. 14) and Christian Braun (No. 21). 

The other NBA Draft props betting special that ultimately favored bettors dealt with the total amount of players drafted from the developmental programs, the G League Ignite and Overtime Elite. UniBet and BetRivers set the over/under total for the entire draft (both rounds) for these programs at 5.5, favoring the over with -148. The under held +113 odds ahead of the draft, and only three players from these programs heard their names called on Thursday night.