Playoffs Have Huge Upset Potential Due to Middleton, Booker Injuries

We now have to account for the possibility that the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks are too banged up to advance past the first round. And if you believe that is indeed the case, the time to gamble on the New Orleans Pelicans and the Chicago Bulls is today. 

Yes, today, which is payday for a ton of people in America and around the world.

Khris Middleton has a sprained medial collateral ligament and is going to miss the rest of the first round at the very least, and Devin Booker is out indefinitely with a Grade 1 hamstring sprain, which anyone who follows James Harden knows can linger for several months.

Injuries and bad luck are part of the game in the NBA playoffs, and the timing could not be worse for the Bucks and the Suns, last year’s NBA finalists who are in precarious positions as we head into the second weekend of the NBA playoffs. Phoenix is tied 1-1 with New Orleans with the series shifting tonight to the Pelicans’ home court. And the Bucks are tied 1-1 with the series moving 90 miles south from Milwaukee to Chicago.

Game 3 in each of those series is tonight. The Pelicans are down to +230 to pull of the first No. 8 vs. No. 1 upset since Philadelphia beat Chicago in 2012, and the Bulls are down to +215 to defeat an opponent that has absolutely owned them for the better part of a half-decade. We are going to learn a whole lot about the resiliency of Milwaukee and Phoenix over the course of the weekend, and we may even learn the same thing about the Atlanta Hawks, who look cooked and are now listed at +900 to come back from an 0-2 deficit against the top-seeded Miami Heat.

We are seeing breakout performances from some players who do not have extensive playoff resumes, most notably Jalen Brunson of the Dallas Mavericks following his 31-point performance against Utah last night that gave the Mavs a 2-1 lead over the Utah Jazz. Ja Morant had a triple-double last night for Memphis and Desmond Bane scored a team-high 26 in a wild comeback victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves, proving that if you change the channel too early in these playoffs you are a dotard (look it up).

Speaking of dotards, the people who are losing money on these NBA playoffs are the ones who are expecting the chalk to hit every night, Sixers and Heat bettors excepted. Still, Philly did not cover in Game 3 at Toronto, and the Raptors will be a desperate team tomorrow. But more on that tomorrow.

What we have to consider today while we are not shaking our heads at the state of the world is what is going to happen tonight in the NBA playoffs. Are we ready to call Trae Young the flavor of 2021 and not 2022? Are we seeing Giannis Antetokounmpo regress to the point of being a mental midget at the free throw line again? Is it possible that David Griffin made the best trade of anyone back at the deadline in February when he pried C.J. McCollum away from the Portland Trail Blazers?

Look, the better teams usually win in the playoffs in ordinary times. But these are not ordinary times. The world has become a very different place since March 2020 when the world shut down, and the sporting world has given us a respite from what we are seeing on the mainstream news programs (for those who can bear to watch). 

Golden State is now the +300 favorite to win the championship, followed by the Suns (+425), Celtics (+475), Heat (+850), Bucks (+900), and the Sixers and Grizzlies (+1000). There is a certain team from Brooklyn that is missing from that list of favorites, making it the first time since last summer that the Nets are being somewhat dismissed. Kyrie Irving will probably have something to say about that tomorrow, but that is a topic for tomorrow’s column.

For today, let’s look at the three games being played tonight and try to give you the guidance you need to make payday a double payday through a payoff. A cautionary note: Do not ever do what your author did Thursday and key a parlay around Andrew Wiggins getting a double-double, OK? Your author is not feeling the kid from Ontario this particular Friday morning.

Anyway, here we go ….

Miami at Atlanta

The Heat have a 2-0 lead as they go on the road for the first time, and as we saw from the Sixers-Raptors series, it’ll likely be a lot tougher on the road than it was back in the friendly confines of the arena on Biscayne Bay. Let’s not forget that the Hawks were a final four team last season with pretty much the same roster, although the absence of Clint Capela (hyperextended right knee) will force John Collins to play out of position against Bam Adebayo. 

Job No. 1 for Atlanta will be trying to find someone who can defend Jimmy Butler, who has not been this motivated since he was debuting Big Face Coffee in the bubble. He is coming off a 45-point performance in Game 2 that represented a playoff career-high, making two dunks and a 3-pointer in a span of less than a minute to seal Game 2 in the final three minutes. Trae Young bounced back from the worst game of his pro career to score 25 points, but the kid had 10 turnovers, which ain’t what playoff hoops should be all about. Atlanta also got 29 points from Bogdan Bogdanovic off the bench, and it would not be a surprise to see coach Nate McMillan elevate him to the starting lineup tonight in place of Danilo Gallinari, who was 0-for-6 two nights ago. 

The Heat are a particularly tough matchup for anyone because they can ride a number of players who have the hot hand on any given night. We saw that with Duncan Robinson (eight 3-pointers) in Game 1 before he went 0-for-0 in 8 minutes in Game 2. Tyler Herro is due for a big game, and the same can be said for Kyle Lowry after he had only nine points and two assists. The line is Miami – 1 ½, making it just the eighth time all season that the Hawks have been ‘dogs at home. The Heat went over 14 times in 23 games as a road favorite, and the over/under line is 221 ½, the same as Game 2 when the under covered by 1 ½ points.

Milwaukee at Chicago

The Bulls have new hope after taking Game 2 at the home of their northern neighbors as Middleton got hurt, and they are riding their big three of DeMar DeRozan, Zack LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, who took 62 of their 89 field goal attempts in Game 2 as coach Billy Donovan rode his starters hard. Mike Budenholzer did the same thing, and tonight he has to find someone to replace Middleton … and that someone will be coming in cold. Candidates include ex-Bull Bobby Portis (2 points in 6 minutes in Game 2) and Serge Ibaka (0 points in 1 minute in Game 2) from a roster in which Thannasis Antetokounpo (DNP-CD in Game 2) is the only other small forward. It would not be surprising to see shooting guards Grayson Allen or Pat Connaughton take Middleton’s place, but the loss of their second-leading scorer is a major one for the Bucks that the Bulls need to take advantage of immediately to put their heavily favored opponent on their heels. 

Milwaukee is favored by 2 ½ and will likely lean more heavily than ever on Giannis Antetokounmpo, who had 33 points, 18 rebounds and nine assists in Game 2 but missed seven more free throws, giving him 12 misses in 29 attempts this postseason. Can crowds counting to 10 be far away? Milwaukee was 18-9-0 against the spread as a road favorite, but this is uncharted territory in a hostile environment without Middleton. 

Chicago has an opportunity to seize the momentum in a huge way and put the Bucks on their heels the same way that the Warriors have done to the Nuggets (who have two full days to stew over their 0-3 deficit). This one should be a very compelling watch, and DeRozan may be the player you want to key on if you are playing individual player props, or maybe not given the next sentence. DeRozan’s point total over/under is 29 ½, and Antetokounmpo’s is very high at 34 ½. Vucevic’s over/under is just 19 ½, which is curious after he scored 24 in Games 1 and 2. Do with that information what you wish.

Phoenix at New Orleans

McCollum finished two rebounds and one assist shy of a triple-double in Game 2 when the Pelicans erupted for 125 points with Brandon Ingram also nearly triple-doubling with 37 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists. Tonight, McCollum is +6500 to get a TD, and Ingram is +3100 (at FanDuel), and those do not appear to be the worst flyer wagers in the history of flyer wagers. Momentum is huge in the postseason, and NOLA has it … but can the Pels do anything with it against a tea that was the class of the NBA all season? There is your million dollar question, and playing at home will be advantageous. 

New Orleans is only a 1 ½-point underdog, and the last team to have a line that short against the Suns was the since-departed Clippers on April 15 (the Suns covered in that game). Prior to that, Phoenix last had a line of 1 ½ points or less way back on Jan. 6 against Golden State, also covering. The big difference as that Booker played in those games, but he has an injury that ESPN has reported will keep him out of both Game 3 and Game 4. That is an enormous void to fill after Booker scored 25 points in Game 1 and 31 in Game 2, and we will likely see Cameron Johnson enter the starting lineup and Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder try to make up for his point production. Paul is coming off a game in which he had 14 assists and no turnovers, and although his assist over/under has been set at 11 ½, he does not have Booker to pass to. So proceed with caution on that one. Bridges had 11 points in Game 1 and 19 in Game 2. His over/under point total seems about right at 16 ½. The over/under is just 216, the lowest for the Suns since Jan. 20. This is the Pels’ chance to start shocking the world, because any NBA playoff team should be capable of winning one game. Winning two against a No. 1 seed is a whole different story. If they can win four, maybe … just maybe … we shall see Zion.