NBA Playoffs: Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 6 – Odds, Prediction, & Start Time

There is some drama in the conference finals round of the 2023 NBA playoffs, after all. After winning the first three games of the Eastern Conference Finals as underdogs, the Miami Heat were finally favored to win Game 4 and the series in a sweep.

But a switch seemed to flip in the Boston Celtics at halftime of that game when they were down by six points. In the six quarters that followed, the C’s have outscored Miami by 36 points. It’s led to Boston becoming the 15th team of the 151 who have been down 3-0 in a best-of-seven NBA playoff series to force a Game 6. With a win in Miami Saturday night, they will be the fourth to pull even and get to a Game 7. With Boston having seized the momentum, what are the Celtics vs. Heat odds for Game 6? We take a look and preview Saturday’s matchup.

The Celtics have been unsteady at times during this playoff run, but their performance in elimination games cannot be discounted. Boston is now 4-0 with their backs against the wall. In fact, their last four wins overall have come when their season would end with a loss.

Boston had four players score over 20 points for the first time all season. Jayson Tatum, who had 21 and had double-digit assists (11) for the first time in the playoffs, continued his strong performances when the season has been on the line–dating back to the fourth quarter of Game 6 in Philadelphia two weeks ago. After falling behind by six in the first quarter of Game 4, the Celtics set the tone from the opening seconds of Game 5.

Boston has turned things around both offensively and defensively. The second-best scoring defense during the regular season looked more like themselves in Games 4 and 5, holding Miami to 99 and 97 points, respectively. Boston forced 16 turnovers in each of the two victories. We’ve come to expect Tatum coming through in the clutch during these playoffs, but if their defensive effort remains this strong, it will be tough for a limited offensive team like Miami to beat Boston.

For Miami, they had a better shooting night in Game 5, but the problem was the number of shots they got off. Despite being closer to their series average from 3-point range with 39% on Thursday, the Heat only took 23 shots from long distance. It’s almost exactly half of the 3s they took in Game 5 (45).

Heat star Jimmy Butler, who was held in check with 14 points on Thursday, says they have to set the tone and make things difficult on Boston’s starters right away on Saturday night in their house.

Another problem for Miami was the ankle injury that kept Gabe Vincent out of Game 5. At 17.5 points per game, he’s Miami’s third-leading scorer in this series. Kyle Lowry, his replacement, had just five points on Thursday.

What puts Boston in a unique position to be able to make history is that they came into this series as the heavily favored team. The Celtics were just the 22nd of the 151 teams to fall behind 3-0 to have a higher regular-season winning percentage than their opponent. The last one to do so was Orlando in 2010–coincidentally against Boston in the very same round of the playoffs. That Magic team won Games 4 and 5 before bowing out in Game 6. The last team to force a Game 7 after being down 3-0 was the 2003 Portland Trail Blazers, who did so against the Dallas Mavericks before losing in the final game.

Losing Vincent was a big blow for Miami, as it took away already limited scoring options outside of Butler. The Heat withstood losing Tyler Herro, but another injury could be too much if Vincent doesn’t play. The backcourt has also been thin without Victor Oladipo being available. With Boston being perfect in elimination games this postseason and really not having to expend too much energy to win on Thursday, we like the Celtics to keep things going.

Prediction: Celtics, 112-105