NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Friday, April 29

By David Fernandez   April 29, 2022 

NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Friday, April 29

There’s only one playoff game on the NBA schedule today – Game 6 of the epic Memphis vs. Minnesota series. This one has been all over the place. Memphis leads 3-2, but that lead only exists due to some epic collapses by the T-Wolves and some unforgettable Ja Morant late-game moments.

The winner of the series will go on to face Golden State in the next round after the Warriors closed out its series against Denver two nights ago. Memphis can set that up with a victory tonight on the road, but neither the Minnesota crowd nor Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards will make it easy for them.

Because there’s no other games to bet on – and really, who would want one with this one promising everything an NBA fan could dream of – we’ve got three separate plays for the game, and you might be able to guess that we’re pretty high on the chances of a Game 7.

Memphis @ Minnesota

The Bet: Timberwolves +1

It feels almost wrong to bet on Memphis in this one. This series has been so exciting with such fantastic (albeit messy at times) play from both teams. The world deserves a Game 7 between these teams, and nobody should be afraid to occasionally bet on a more desirable outcome.

But there’s reason beyond that to think Minnesota is the right side. They have a 3-2 advantage when it comes to covering the spread in this series (and a 5-4 ATS advantage over the Grizzlies on the season). They’re also 23-15 ATS on the season following a loss.

Memphis had the best record in the league against the spread this season, but it covered by a much smaller average margin (1.7 points per game) on the road than they did at home (4.3 points per game). Take the Timberwolves to keep it mighty tight.

The Bet: Minnesota First Half Moneyline -115

On the season, Minnesota was second in the league with a first half scoring average of 58.8 points per first half. Memphis wasn’t far behind, but Memphis was four points worse by this metric on the road than they were at home.

And then there’s this series. The Timberwolves have led at the half in four of five games, and that includes a game in which they scored just 12 in the second quarter. The story of this series is Minnesota meltdowns, and we’re hoping that doesn’t happen, but if it doesn’t, you’ll be covered here.

The Bet: Karl Anthony-Towns Over 36.5 Combined Points and Rebounds -115

In the two games that Minnesota won in this series, Towns crushed this number. He also topped it fairly easily in one of his team’s losses. Only in Games 2 and 3, when he played dreadfully, did he not come close to this number.

The Wolves will only go as far as their all-star center can take them, which isn’t to say he’s their whole team, but if he has another eight point, five rebound game, like he did last week, it’ll be onto the offseason for this team.

Share this story

Read more