NBA Finals: Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Game 4 – Odds, Prediction, & Start Time

After the Miami Heat stole home-court advantage with a 111-108 win in Game 2, Miami sought to carry that momentum into Game 3. On Wednesday, the Heat held an early five-point lead, but the Denver Nuggets controlled the majority of the game in a 109-94 victory. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray each recorded triple-doubles. The Denver star-duo became the first pair of teammates to achieve the feat in a Finals game in NBA history. 

Home-court hasn’t been too kind for Miami recently. The Heat have lost three-straight games at the Kaseya Center dating back to Game 4 against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Prior to that, Miami was 6-0 in its building. The Heat, however, are in a familiar place in its NBA Finals history. The Heat have fallen behind 2-1 in five of their seven championship appearances. Miami trailed at some point in the series in all three of its championship victories. How do the Heat vs. Nuggets odds shape up for Game 4?

Normally, the more the star players score, the more likely the team is supposed to win. That’s not necessarily the case with Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. Denver is 0-3 when the two-time MVP scores at least 40 points this postseason. That includes his 41-point performance in Game 2 of the Finals.

The Nuggets have only lost four times in these playoffs. In Game 3, Jokic piled up 30 points and got his teammates more involved with 10 assists. He also grabbed a game-high 20 rebounds to further cement his torrid stretch.

Denver holds the series edge despite the struggles of forward Michael Porter Jr. In the regular season, Porter Jr. poured in over 17 PPG. In this series, however, Miami has suffocated the dynamic scorer. Porter Jr. is averaging just seven points per contest on 25.8% from the floor. Porter Jr. returning to form could be the key to closing the Heat out.

One of the unsung heroes for the Heat in the last round was Caleb Martin. The forward averaged over 19 points-per-game on over 60% efficiency from the field. This series, Martin has appeared to fall back to Earth. The sharpshooter has scored about five points per game at a 31.6% clip. The good news for Miami is Martin may have found his footing in Game 3 with eight-straight points in the second quarter. For the Heat to even the series, they need Martin to build off this recent performance. 

Miami’s offense has struggled in this series with just 99.3 points per game. It extends their offensive struggles that started in Game 4 against Boston. It was rumored guard Tyler Herro could provide a boost in Game 3, but that wasn’t the case. The former Sixth Man of the Year continues to recover from a broken right hand he suffered during Game 1 of the first round against Milwaukee on April 16. The timeline was originally set for a minimum of six weeks. Herro has averaged over 20 points-per-game the last two seasons. His offensive production would be much-needed by Miami.

It’s now desperation time for Miami. The only team to comeback from a 3-1 deficit in the NBA Finals was the 2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers. That means, we expect the Heat to come out strong in Game 4 to avoid falling in a near insurmountable hole. 

For Game 4, the Nuggets are a 3.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks. The team that won Game 4 has gone on to win the championship in nine of the previous 12 finals. 

Denver has appeared to be the better team for much of this series. The Nuggets have held a double-digit lead in each of the first three games. But, Miami is 7-7 in these playoffs when trailing by at least 12 points. The keys are simple: the Heat need to try and bury the Nuggets early, while Denver needs to survive the expected surge. Overall, we believe the Nuggets will withstand the storm and take a stranglehold of this series.
Prediction: Nuggets, 106-95