NBA Best Bets: Warriors-Mavs, Game 5

Here’s some depressing news: There are as few as six NBA games left in  the season, assuming the Warriors win tonight and the Celtics win tomorrow and the NBA Finals end in a sweep. Best case scenario, if Dallas-Golden State, Miami-Boston, and then the Finals all go seven games, there are just a dozen games of basketball remaining before the fall.

What we’re getting at is, appreciate every second of hoops you see, because soon it will be gone, for awhile. Here are our two best bets for tonight’s Warriors-Mavs tilt.

Mavericks @ Warriors

The Bet: Warriors -7 (-110, DraftKings)

The Warriors still have a comfortable lead in the Western conference finals but if they lose at home tonight, the “blowing a 3-1 lead” memes will be out of control.

Golden State blew a chance to sweep Dallas on Tuesday night but they are back at the Chase Center tonight, where they are 8-0 in the postseason. Overall, the Warriors have won ten straight games at home with their last home loss coming way back in March to the Suns.

Golden State covered easily as a -7.5 favorite in Game 1 and then blew out Dallas as a -5.5 favorite in Game 2. The line for Game 5 is back to -7.

Dallas is 18-26 outright as an underdog this season. Golden State is 54-21 as a favorite this year.

Let’s start with this: the Warriors are going to win tonight and close out the series. But will they cover? Their wins have been by 9 twice and then by 25 points against Dallas (and their loss was by 10 points.) Dallas just doesn’t have the manpower to hang with the Warriors on the road. Golden State wins and covers.

The Bet: Under 215.5 Points (-110, BetMGM)

Overs and unders have traded off wins so far in this series. The total for Game 5 is 215.5, the same number from Game 4. Dallas won that game 119-109, the second highest scoring game of the series after Game 2, which was 126-117.

Warriors home games have seen the over hit just 19 times in 49 contests. Overs in Mavericks road games are 25-24-1. We like the under here, because if the Warriors pull ahead early, the Mavericks might just start mailing it in.