NBA Best Bets: Warriors-Mavs, Game 4

No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit. The only sliver of good news for the Dallas Mavericks is that their very opponent is the last team to blow a 3-1 lead. If Dallas can get a win on the board at home, perhaps the ghosts of 2016 will start to haunt the Warriors. If you’re a believer, Dallas is +8000 in NBA Championship Futures Odds. But, will the Mavericks be able to steal Game 4? Let’s break it down. 

Warriors @ Mavs

The Bet: Warriors +1 (Points Bet, -110)

This series is OVER. Dallas looked like a legitimate title contender when they dispatched the top-seeded Phoenix Suns in the second round. But, there’s a long standing rule in the NBA: If your second best player is Jalen Brunson, it is mathematically impossible for you to win the championship. 

Dallas has had a brutal time against Golden State finding a second scorer. In Game 1, Jalen Brunson struggled, missing all five of his three point attempts. In Game 2, Dallas didn’t play any defense. In Game 3, Reggie Bullock went 0 for 10 in Game 4. 

Whether it’s Brunson or Bullock, or Dorian Finney-Smith, it doesn’t seem to matter anymore if someone steps up. Golden State just has too much firepower and is better defensively. They are going to lock in the sweep and get some extra rest before the NBA Finals. 

The Bet: Over 215.5 Points (-110, Bet MGM)

Here’s the over/under stat of the year: When the Dallas Mavericks are on the road, their games hit the over about half of the time (25-24-1). But at home? Overs are a shocking 12-35-1 in Dallas. 

The number for Game 4 is 215.5, which is the lowest total of the series thus far. Game 2, which featured 243 points, is the only game of the series so far to go over. 

All four Mavericks home games in the postseason and five straight overall have gone under. Is it a fluke or is there a good reason why games at the American Airlines Center have been such low scoring affairs? We think it’s a fluke and we’re taking the over.