NBA Best Bets: Warriors-Mavs, Game 3

Through two games, Golden State is proving it can beat Dallas multiple ways. In Game 1, the Warriors threw a bunch of unique defensive looks at the Mavs, while in Game 2, Golden State overcame a halftime deficit thanks to some scorching hot offense.

The question for Game 3 is whether Dallas is just totally spent from a grueling second round series against Phoenix or if the Mavs were waiting to pounce when the series shifted back home, like they did against the Suns.

With just one game on the NBA schedule at this point in the season, we’re highlighting a spread and total bet for Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals:

Golden State @ Dallas

The Bet: Mavs -2.5

We refuse to believe Luka and the Mavs are going to just fall over and croak. This team took out the best regular season team in the league, and they’ve shown over stretches of this series with Golden State that they can be the better squad. Most notably, the first half of Game 2 was all Dallas with Luka going off and his supporting cast, primarily Jalen Brunson and Reggie Bullock, playing lights out.

Game 3 is basically do or die for Dallas, but when it comes to playoff home games, the Mavs have been elite, winning five of six games with a point differential of +71.

Golden State, meanwhile, is 2-3 on the road in the playoffs straight up (1-4 ATS) with a -43 point differential. That doesn’t mean they won’t steal one of these two games, but we’ll back a super motivated Mavs team with its back against the wall on Sunday.

Golden State @ Dallas

The Bet: Under 218.5 Points

While Game 2 didn’t even come close to going under, both the Mavs and the Warriors are among the teams who played the most games to the under over the course of the regular season, with Dallas doing so at a higher rate than any other team in the league.

At home, they went under nearly 74 percent of the time and by an average of more than six points under the spread. More recently, they’ve gone under in five of their last seven games in the playoffs, and none of those had a spread as high as this one.

Let’s bet on Game 2 being an anomaly in a number of respects. The under is the play here.