Three of the league’s best – Memphis, Milwaukee and Phoenix – are on the road this evening, and each is set to face a team struggling to string together wins. It’s one of those rare evenings where the road favorites rule the board, but with home dogs covering about 50 percent of the time this season, picking a side is harder than it looks.
As we kick off the final weekend prior to next Thursday’s trade deadline, we’ve done all of the legwork for you and settled on our trio of best bets for tonight’s action.
Memphis guard Ja Morant is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup against Orlando with a foot injury. That said, even if he does sit this one out, his absence shouldn’t matter all that much: The Grizzlies are 10-2 without their leading scorer this season, and are facing a Magic team that’s just 5-18 at home this season.
In 23 games at the Amway Center this season, Orlando has been outscored by an average of nearly 10 points per game. The Magic are just 7-16 against the spread at home this year, while the Grizzlies are a league-best 18-8 ATS on the road. Orlando ranks in the bottom third in the league in both scoring offense and scoring defense – they simply don’t have enough talent on both ends of the court to keep up with Memphis.
No team in the league has more wins against the spread as a road favorite than the Phoenix Suns (12), and No. 13 should come in short order against Washington tonight. All due respect to the Wizards, but the most accurate portrayal of their team is the version that lost six straight recently, and not the one that pulled out a fluke three-point victory over the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday.
The Suns’ 11-game winning streak was snapped earlier this week, but that run included multiple wins over the Utah Jazz, as well as double-digit victories over both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Brooklyn Nets. Thursday’s defeat at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks is Phoenix’s only road loss since New Year’s Eve. Since the start of the 2022 calendar year, the Wizards are just 4-12 against the spread overall.
This isn’t exactly the best spot for a Portland squad that’s a day removed from trading a pair of starters – including third-leading scorer Norman Powell – to the Los Angeles Clippers. Newcomers Eric Bledsoe, Justise Winslow and Keon Johnson may be in uniform for the Trail Blazers this evening, but they’ll have their work cut out for them against a Milwaukee team coming in with three days’ rest. Portland, meanwhile, will be looking to integrate their new additions on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Not only are the Bucks a solid 10-7 ATS as a road favorite this season, but they’ve won their last five matchups against Portland, averaging 132.6 PPG in those contests. Giannis Antetokounmpo has scored 25 or more in 17 straight games, and he’ll look to continue that streak against the Trail Blazers, who allow 112.1 points per game, the fifth-worst mark in the NBA.
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