Houston and the New York Mets have the largest leads at 8.5 games, The Yankees are 7.5 ahead of Toronto, and Minnesota is 4.5 in front of Cleveland. Milwaukee and St. Louis are tied in the loss column, and the Dodgers are just two games ahead of San Diego after LA finished a 2-5 homestand against Pittsburgh and the Mets while the Padres won the last three of a four-game set on the road to the Brewers.
But with three wild card spots coming out of each league, seven National League teams are no worse than 4.5 games of a playoff spot, whereas in the American League, eight teams are no worse than three games back.
As of games that finished on June 5, Atlanta is the only team at or above the .500 mark that would miss the playoffs. Curiously, the Braves got off to a slow start last year too, and look how things ended for them (more on the Braves in a minute).
Let’s take a moment to examine these teams in the wild card hunt for this week’s MLB Futures Stock Watch.
Atlanta may not run away with the NL East like they did a year ago based on how the Mets are playing without aces Jacob DeGrom and Max Scherzer, but the Braves appear to be over their World Series hangover and have won five straight (including a four-game sweep at Colorado) to improve to 28-27. There’s more good news for the Bravos, as their next 12 games are all against teams under .500. Going 8-4 in that stretch will help them put the .500 mark behind them and put them in the wild card conversation with St. Louis, San Diego, and San Francisco.
Atlanta is currently +1800 to repeat as World Series champs, but given that they reached Game 7 of the NLCS in 2020 and won it all last year, not too many teams would want to run into the Braves this October, and if they go on a strong run over the next two weeks, those odds will shrink. Get them at +1800 while you can.
The NL Central is shaping up to be a two-team race between Milwaukee and St. Louis, and with the three other teams in the division being on the weak side, the two clubs should pile up enough wins to where each will make the playoffs.
With Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado pacing the offense, the Cardinals are fifth in batting average at .254 and fourth in runs scored at 269. The Cards’ pitching is middle of the pack, but they do have six shutouts on the season. Miles Mikolas has been a surprise in his return to the rotation coming off an injury last year, and Adam Wainwright is posting a 2.75 ERA at the age of 40.
Even though the teams are tied in the loss column, Milwaukee’s odds to win it all are at +1200, whereas you can get the Cardinals at +3000. The Brewers have the better starting pitching, but if the Cardinals add a solid pitcher at the trade deadline, the value lies in St. Louis.
We talked a bit about the Brewers in the Cardinals entry above, but looking at Milwaukee’s schedule so far, what stands out is the lack of quality opponents. In posting a 33-23 record, just 16 of those 56 games came against teams that were above .500 (Atlanta is now above .500, but they weren’t when the teams met for six games in May). In those 16 games, Milwaukee went 7-9.
From June 14 until the All-Star Break on July 17, the Brewers will play 18 games against teams currently above .500, including three at the Mets, four against St. Louis, and four at San Francisco. This past weekend, Milwaukee would’ve been swept in a four-game series at home against San Diego if it wasn’t for a four-run rally in the ninth inning to win the opener of that series 5-4.
Due to the weakness of the other three teams in the Central, Milwaukee will likely make the playoffs, but they did so last year and it was an early exit. They could be looking at the same fate this year unless they add some offense to go with their strong pitching staff and excellent closer in Josh Hader.
The Red Sox have seen improved pitching and won four-straight games to reach the .500 mark. Problem is, Boston is still in fourth place in the American League East even though they sit in the third wild card spot due to the Angels having cratered from an 11-game losing streak.
While the futures odds of +5000 for a team that reached the ALCS a season ago is tempting, here’s the problem with Boston: they are 7-14 against the AL East, and they will have a heavy dose of games against the Yankees, Toronto, and Tampa Bay for the remainder of the season.
One thing in Boston’s favor is that they will likely spend at the trade deadline to try and improve their pitching, which is a weakness, so let’s see how they play over the next month or so to see if they will be buyers at the deadline, and then we can reassess our stance on Boston. But hold off for now.
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