MLB Futures Stock Watch: Heavy Favorites Emerging After Memorial Day

With the Memorial Day holiday just passed, teams have played around 50 games–close to one-third of the season.

It’s traditionally the first point of the long Major League Baseball season where teams take stock in where they are, what they have, and what they might need to contend.

This year, MLB expanded the number of playoff teams in each league to six, and as of now, the only threshold to make the postseason would be to finish above .500 because there are just six teams in each league above .500.

For our MLB World Series futures stock watch, we’re going to take a look at some of these dominant teams and who’s worth backing and who we need to see more from.

STOCK UP: New York Mets

Odds to Win 2022 World Series: +800 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Yes, we wrote about the Mets in our last installment when they proved that they were going to be a force despite Jacob DeGrom’s injury. But since then, co-ace Max Scherzer was also lost for six to eight weeks. Many predicted that those injuries, along with Tylor Megill being on the injured list, would be too much for the Mets to overcome, and their 7.5-game lead would shrink heading into the All-Star break, when one or both may return to the rotation.

The thing is, however, is that the Mets are 8-3 since losing Scherzer, as not only has their pitching kept the team above water, the offense is also on fire, scoring at least eight runs in six of their past eight contests. And the National League East seems to be crumbling around them, as New York’s lead in the division is up to 10.5 as the calendar flips to June.

Despite all this, the Mets’ odds remain at +800, just as they were before Scherzer’s injury. It’s clear that New York, especially if they get their aces back for the second half, is one of the elite teams in the game and could be on a collision course with the Dodgers in the NLCS. And even with a difficult schedule in June, their odds aren’t likely to drop much at this point, so +800 may be the best you can get on the Mets the rest of the way.

Stock Up: Minnesota Twins

Odds to Win 2022 World Series: +3000 (Bet MGM)

The Twins are showing more and more that their last-place finish from a year ago was an aberration, and they’re more like the Minnesota team that won the American League Central in 2019 and ‘20. But even with a 31-20 record and a five-game lead over the White Sox going into June, the Twins’ odds to win the World Series are the longest of any division leader at +3000.

Much like what propelled them to the playoffs in ‘19 and ’20, the offense is clicking for the Twins. Byron Buxton has stayed healthy, Carlos Correa has been a fine addition, Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez have benefitted from a change of scenery after their Yankee days, and second baseman Luis Arraez is fourth in MLB in hitting with a .351 batting average.

Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray are pitching well, but the Twins could use some depth. Their playoff record is also concerning, having not only not won a series since 2002 but not winning a single playoff game since 2004, which is a span of 15 games. But at +3000, you’re going to have to take some risks, and the Twins playoff history is definitely a hurdle they will have to clear should they reach October.

STOCK DOWN: Tampa Bay Rays

Odds to Win 2022 World Series: +2000 (Caesars Sportsbook)

While the Rays showed some fight over the weekend by taking the final two games of a series against the first-place Yankees after dropping the first two, they have gone to Texas and promptly dropped two in a row. The Rays, typically one of the most balanced teams in the league, are currently a .500 team on the road and if the Yankees take the division, Tampa Bay will have to win plenty of road games to advance in the playoffs.

The Rays are 22nd in hitting and fourth in the league in ERA, but outside of Shane McClanahan, it appears they lack the pitching depth to be serious contenders in the playoffs. Jeffrey Springs has a 1.62 ERA through five starts, and Corey Kluber has given the Rays more than they could’ve expected when signing the veteran, but they lack a strong second option in the rotation that led to an early playoff exit last year and was the difference from what they had in 2020 when they reached the World Series.

Tampa Bay is 28-21 and in solid position for a playoff spot at the moment, but this definitely has the feeling the Rays teams that didn’t have the pieces to contend in October instead of teams equipped to potentially win the World Series like the last two seasons.

Stock Down: San Francisco Giants

Odds to Win 2022 World Series: +2500 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

We knew it would be hard for the Giants to duplicate their 105-win season from a year ago that still saw them unable to top the rival Dodgers in the playoffs, and now, they seem a step behind not only LA but San Diego as well, who have played more along the lines of their expectations than last year.

New acquisition Joc Pederson has been on fire, hitting four home runs over the past week, but San Francisco doesn’t have the pitching depth of a year ago. Carlos Rodon had a great start to the season but has been shaky in his last few outings, and Logan Webb hasn’t been as strong this year either.

Can San Francisco make the playoffs again? Sure. But they have a difficult division to contend in since even Arizona and Colorado are not far from the .500 mark, while contenders in the East and Central have easier paths to a potential Wild Card berth.