MLB Best Bets: Thursday, July 14

By Sidelines   July 14, 2022 

MLB Best Bets: Thursday, July 14

A week ago today, we wrote about the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners having modest four-game winning streaks that were the best in baseball at the time. Fast-forward to today, and both clubs have now won 10 in a row for the first time in over 20 years. 

Baltimore is off today after recording a two-game sweep in Chicago against the Cubs, and they open a weekend series at Tampa Bay on Friday.

The Mariners swept a doubleheader in Washington yesterday to push their streak to double digits, and now they are in Texas for a four-game series against the Rangers before the All-Star break. 

We’re taking a look at whether Seattle can keep the good times rolling and the rest of the Thursday action in Major League Baseball as we unveil our MLB best bets for today.

Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers

The Bet: Seattle +100 (Bet MGM)

 

The Mariners open up their series in Texas facing the Rangers’ ace, but Martin Perez has been a little shaky in recent outings, whereas Seattle’s Marco Gonzalez has been pitching consistently well as of late.

Gonzalez is 5-9 with 3.24 ERA on the season and has a five-start streak where he’s gone at least six innings while allowing two runs or fewer. He took a loss on June 4 in Texas but pitched well in a seven-inning outing, allowing three runs and striking out five.

The Rangers have won Perez’s last six starts, but his ERA has risen from 1.96 to 2.72 over the course of his last three turns in the rotation. He allowed six runs in six innings against Minnesota on Saturday and has given up four home runs in his last two starts. 

The Mariners have won four of six against Texas this year, and while the pitching matchup appears to tilt in Texas’s favor, Perez’s recent performance and Seattle’s streak are keeping us riding the hot hand of the Mariners.

San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies

The Bet: San Diego -135 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

Colorado leads this four-game series 2-1 and has won seven of its last eight over San Diego, but we’re favoring the Padres today at Coors Field.

Blake Snell (1-5, 4.66 ERA) has had two injury-filled seasons so far with San Diego, but he’s thrown his best two games as a Padre in his last two outings. He allowed one run each (a solo home run) in starts against San Francisco and the Los Angeles Dodgers, striking out a total of 23 batters in 11 innings. Sure, a matchup in Denver could be tough on Snell, but if the Rockies can’t hit the ball, the favorable scoring conditions won’t matter.

The Rockies send Kyle Freeland (4-7, 4.70 ERA), who has an ERA at home of 5.23, to pitch the series finale. Freeland had a good June, going 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA, but July has been a rough one so far. In two starts, Freeland has posted a 7.50 ERA in 12 innings of work. In a game against San Diego at Coors Field last month, Freeland allowed four runs in seven innings.

It’s safe to say that San Diego will put up a big number on offense, and with an over/under total of 11.5, Colorado will probably get a few tallies as well. But if Snell can pitch as he did in his last two starts, it should be enough to push the Padres to a much-needed win over a division rival they have had trouble beating as of late. 

New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs

The Bet: New York -125 (Caesars Sportsbook)

 

The New York Mets are a candidate for a letdown after taking two of three in a highly publicized series over the second-place Braves in Atlanta, but the second-best team in the National League is visiting a Cubs team that’s dropped six in a row and eight of their last 10 games. 

After struggling in two starts against Houston, Carlos Carrasco settled down in his last two starts to keep Texas and Miami at bay in games that both ended up being wins for the Mets. He’s 9-4 on the season with a 4.55 ERA. Home runs have been a bit of a problem for Carrasco this year, but the wind is expected to be blowing in a bit at Wrigley Field tonight, keeping more balls in the yard.

Keegan Thompson (7-3, 3.04 ERA) has been the Cubs’ most consistent pitcher this season, and he’s allowed one or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts. Length, however, has been an issue, as he’s only pitched into the seventh inning once in that span, and the Mets just spent a series in Atlanta wearing out their starters so none got past the fifth inning.

New York was shorthanded on offense against the Braves, but they should get Jeff McNeil back from paternity leave, and Starling Marte also could return from a groin injury he suffered over the weekend. Could the Cubs win? Sure. But the Mets (27-19 on the road) at -125 against an inferior opponent (Cubs are 17-29 at Wrigley Field) represents great value.

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