Major League Baseball’s schedule for Tuesday, June 21st, features all 30 teams seeing action. MLB Odds favor the home teams in most of these games.
Runs have been hard to come by for many teams of late, and that trend continued yesterday as 12 of the 18 teams in play plated four or fewer runs. 10 of those 12 scored two runs or fewer, with all but two of those teams taking the loss. For the entire MLB season so far, the Under has hit in 51.8 percent of all games (493-459).
Only six of Tuesday’s 15 games stand as divisional matchups, though several rivalries are set to resume in these contests. Today’s bets back …. Here’s a look at three MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, June 14th.
The Los Angeles Dodgers (40-25) come to this contest without one of their top players in Mookie Betts, who recently landed on the 10-day IL with a rib injury. The Dodgers are 5-5 over their last 10 games, with just a .229 batting average over that stretch. Pitching has carried LA of late, as evidenced by their 2.76 ERA in the last 10.
The Cincinnati Reds (23-43) come to this contest having lost four in a row. The Reds are 3-7 over their last 10 games, with a .249 batting average and 4.40 team ERA. They were outscored by 11 runs in those games and averaged just 3.9 runs per game over that stretch. The Reds are 16-9 in games when they scored at least five runs this season, but average 4.4 runs per game this season.
The pitching matchup fir this one sees one of the NL’s best in LA’s Tony Gonsolin (8-0, 1.42 ERA, .82 WHIP, 60 strikeouts) face Reds starter Tyler Mahle (2-5, 4.46 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 86 strikeouts), who’s pitched well of late. Over Mahle’s last four starts, he’s pitched to a 1.30 ERA, including a complete-game without an earned run his last time out. In his last two starts, Mahle’s registered 22 strikeouts over 15 innings pitched.
The Dodgers have averaged just 2.6 runs per game over their last eight contests, and 3.7 over their last 10. With LA’s offense scuffling of late, and missing Betts from the lineup, the Under here seems like a solid play, especially getting plus-odds at nine runs.
The total has gone Under in four of Cincinnati’s last five games at home, and five of the last eight at home against the Dodgers specifically. For LA, the Under is 6-0-2 in their last eight games following a loss and 7-1-1 in their last nine road games. The Dodgers have seen the Under hit in seven of their last 12 versus a right-handed starter, and five of their last eight games overall.
MLB Best Bet: Braves Runline -1.5/+115 (DraftKings)
The San Francisco Giants (37-29) dropped to 18-15 on the road with Monday’s loss in Atlanta. The Giants are 7-3 over their last 10 games despite just a .212 batting average in those contests. What’s carried the Giants has been stellar pitching, as the staff posted a 1.84 ERA in those 10 contests.
The Atlanta Braves (39-29) hope to continue their current eight-game home winning streak in this one, following their 2-1 victory over the Giants on Monday. Atlanta’s 8-2 over their last 10 games, with a .264 batting average and 2.86 ERA in that stretch. They outscored opponents by 29 runs in those contests. The Braves have a 19-11 record in games when they did not allow a home run, however, San Francisco ranks fifth in the NL with 78 total home runs, averaging 1.2 per game.
The pitching matchup for Tuesday features Atlanta’s Spencer Strider (3-2, 2.86 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 68 strikeouts) against a returning Anthony DeSclafani for San Francisco, who’s making his first start since April 21. He’s made seven career starts against Atlanta, going 1-4 with a 4.54 ERA.
DeSclafani struggled in his three appearances early this season, posting a 6.08 ERA. He’s likely on a pitch count for Tuesday, which means the Giants bullpen, with its below league-average ERA (4.06, 17th), will handle a greater load. San Francisco relievers have posted the 19th-highest WHIP (1.30) and rank 25th in batting average against (.251).
Atlanta enters this contest an MLB-best 16-2 in June, including 7-0 at home so far this month. The Braves are 10-1 in their last 11 games versus a right-handed starter and 13-3 in their last 16 games as a home favorite. The Giants, meanwhile, are 1-5 in their last six road games versus a team above .500, and 0-4 in their last four road games as an underdog. They’ve 1-5 in their last six versus a starting pitcher with a WHIP below 1.15.
The New York Mets (45-24) own the best record in the National League and travel down to a former NL rival in Houston. The Mets are 21-14 on the road so far this season, and come to this quick two-game series 7-3 over their last 10 games. During that stretch, New York posted a .255 batting average and 4.04 team ERA, outscoring opponents by eight runs.
The Houston Astros (41-25) hold a comfortable 10-game lead in the AL West division, despite only going 5-5 over their last 10 games. During that recent stretch, the Astros hit .254 and managed a 3.44 team ERA. They outscored opponents by five runs in those contests. Michael Brantley played well in that stretch, going 13-for-38 with two doubles, two home runs and eight RBI over the past 10 games.
Tuesday’s pitching matchup pits New York’s Trevor Williams (1-3, 3.53 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 33 strikeouts) versus Astros starter Jose Urquidy (5-3, 4.99 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 47 strikeouts). Urquidy is 1-2 with a 6.43 ERA and .938 opponent OPS over his last four starts with as many strikeouts as runs allowed (17 each). Williams is averaging 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings and faces an Astros lineup striking out at the third-highest rate this season (7.3 per game). He has issued only two walks over his five starts.
Houston starting shortstop Jeremy Pena remains on the 10-day IL, while AL MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez is day-to-day with a hand injury. Alvarez missed the Astros’ last game. The Mets saw Jeff McNeil exit their last game early with a hamstring injury.
The Mets own the second-best record in MLB and getting underdog odds is always value. The Mets enter this one 9-0 in their last nine games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. New York is 30-14 versus right-handed starting pitchers this season, and 12-3 in their last 15 Tuesday games. The Astros are 5-11 in their last 16 home games versus an NL team with a winning record, and 3-8 in their last 11 games versus a right-handed NL starter.
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