MLB Best Bets For Tuesday, July 5

By Roy Burton   July 5, 2022 

MLB Best Bets For Tuesday, July 5

Major League Baseball’s schedule for Tuesday, July 5th, features all 30 teams seeing action with 15 games on the docket. MLB Odds favor the home teams in most of these games, though there are some notable road favorites.

The Fourth of July holiday brought a few firsts in MLB history. The Miami Marlins became the first team in league history to connect on four go-ahead home runs with two outs in the ninth inning or later in a span of nine days. Meanwhile, in the Minnesota Twins game on Monday, fans saw the first-ever 8-5 triple-play put out in MLB history. With all 30 teams in play on Tuesday, there’s a chance for even more highlight-reel content. 

Only seven of Tuesday’s 15 games stand as divisional matchups, with the home team favored in five of those. Today’s bets back …. Here’s a look at three MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, July 5th. 

Game     Best Bet 
Los Angeles Angels at Miami     Under 7 Runs -105 (Borgta)
New York Yankees at Pittsburgh     Over 9 Runs +108 (BetMGM)
Toronto at Oakland     Blue Jays Runline -1.5/-108 (UniBet)

Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins

MLB Best Bet: Under 7 Runs -105 (Borgata)

Jun 29, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 29, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Angels (37-44) come east for a rare road trip versus the Marlins. The Angels started their road trip with a tough, three-game sweep at the hands of the Astros in Houston, and now travel to South Beach for a quick two-game set in Miami. Los Angeles enters this one 4-6 in their last 10 games, with just a .200 batting average and a 4.24 ERA. Opponents outscored the Angels by 17 runs over that span. 

The Miami Marlins (38-40) come home riding a five-game winning streak that’s improved their record to just two games under .500 for the first time since early May. The Marlins completed a four-game sweep of the Nationals in Washington, using dramatic, late-inning power to swing those games. Miami posted a 6-4 record over their last 10 games, with a .240 batting average and 3.60 team ERA. 

The combination of having one of the best pitchers in baseball and missing a few key bats in the lineup makes the under seem like an MLB Best Bet play for July 5th. Miami’s lineup will be without two regulars, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jorge Soler, who are both on the IL. The Angels have struggled to score consistently of late, averaging just 2.45 runs-per-game over their last five contests.

The Marlins send out Sandy Alcantara (8-3, 1.95 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 97 strikeouts), who was named National League Pitcher or the Month after he posted a 3-1 record with a 1.89 ERA in six starts in June. Opponents hit just .199 off him in the month, and he rarely allowed baserunners, reflected by his 0.88 WHIP. He’s currently tops in MLB in innings pitched (115.1) and third in ERA. 

The Angels lineup Noah Syndergaard (5-6, 3.86 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 47 strikeouts) for this one. While it’s rare the Angels make a visit to Miami, it’s not for Syndergaard, who spent the early part of his career with the New York Mets. Syndergaard enters 7-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 12 career starts against the Marlins.

Los Angeles has seen the Under hit in seven of their last 10 games versus a pitcher with a WHIP below 1.15. The Under is 14-5-1 in the Angels’ last 20 games overall, and 7-3 in their last 10 road games. For the Marlins, the Under is 5-1 in their last six games overall, and 4-1 in their last five games versus a right-handed starter. 

New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB Best Bet: Over 9 Runs +108 (BetMGM)

The New York Yankees (58-22) bats have struggled to find consistency of late, as evidenced by their performance in Cleveland over the weekend. After plating 19 runs in a double-header, the Yankees managed just one hit in the series finale. That yo-yoing production at the plate led to a .180 batting average over the last 10 games. Though despite those offensive struggles, New York won six of those 10, thanks in large part to the 2.63 ERA posted by the pitching staff.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (32-47), meanwhile, continue to sputter along this season. Pittsburgh posted a 3-7 record in their last 10 games, with a .226 batting average and a 5.90 ERA. Opponents outscored the Pirates by 21 runs over that span.

Tuesday’s pitching matchup pits Yankees starter Jameson Taillon (9-1, 3.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 69 strikeouts) versus Pirates starter Jose Quintana (1-4, 3.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 67 strikeouts). Tallion, a former Pirates pitcher in his own right, allowed nine earned runs in his last 10.2 innings, and posted a 4.59 ERA in June. Quintana’s June ERA checked in at 4.80 over six starts last month. In the three starts in which he faced winning teams, though, Quintana’s ERA sat at 5.74 and he didn’t pitch beyond 5.1 innings in any of those games. 

In June, the Pirates connected on 44 home runs, which finished one short of the franchise record for homers in a month. The Yankees lead MLB with 133 total home runs so far this season. The Yankees still hold the best odds to win the American League

The Yankees enjoyed their first off-day on Monday since mid-June, a stretch of 20 games where they posted a 14-6 record. New York has seen the Over go 17-8-1 in their last 26 games following an off-day. For the Yankees, the Over is 13-4 in their last 17 game 1s of a series, and 8-2 in their last 10 Tuesday contests. The Over is 5-1 in Pittsburgh’s last six home games, and 5-2 in their last seven against a right-handed starter. 

Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics

MLB Best Bet: Blue Jays Runline -1.5/-108 (UniBet)

Jun 30, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi (16) throws a pitch to the Tampa Bay Rays during the sixth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays (44-37) come to this contest struggling through a four-game losing skid. Their vaunted offense has struggled during this stretch, failing to score more than three runs in three of the four losses. Over their last 10 games, the Blue Jays went 4-6, with a .269 batting average and 5.16 team ERA. Opponents outscored Toronto by 10 runs over that span.

The Oakland Athletics (27-55) scored a 5-1 win over the Blue Jays in game 1 of this series on Monday. Over their last 10, the A’s also posted a 4-6 record, managing a .239 batting average, but a solid 3.96 ERA. Their run differential was nearly even, having been outscored by one run in those games. 

Tuesday’s pitching matchup seems to favor Toronto, which is why the Blue Jays are one of the few road betting favorites on July 5th. Blue Jays expect Yusei Kikuchi (3-4, 4.74 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 74 strikeouts) to start opposite Athletics pitcher Adrian Martinez (1-1, 6.30 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, six strikeouts). 

Kikuchi gets an offensively-challenged A’s squad, one that’s scored the second-fewest runs and sports the worst team OPS in MLB. He’s coming off one of his best starts of the season, a 4-1 home win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday. Kikuchi went six innings, gave up a run on four hits, struck out eight and walked one. He’s made nine career starts against the A’s, going 1-2 with a 3.19 ERA in those outings. 

Kikuchi’s counterpart on Tuesday, Martinez, looks to make his first career start against Toronto. He’s made two career MLB starts. Martinez threw 5.1 shutout innings in a 4-1 win at Detroit in his MLB debut. But after another run in the minors, Martinez returned last week but struggled mightily. He allowed seven runs in 4.2 innings during an 8-6 loss to the Mariners.

Toronto is 5-2 in its last seven meetings with the A’s in Oakland, and 7-2 in the last nine meetings overall between these clubs. The Blue Jays are 18-6 in their last 24 games versus an AL West opponent, and 22-9 in their last 31 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400. Oakland is 2-11 in their last 13 games versus AL East opponents, and 1-4 in their last five home games versus winning teams. 

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