After a Sunday slate that saw all 30 teams take the field, Major League Baseball’s schedule for Monday, June 27, features only nine contests. MLB Odds favor most of the home teams for these ballgames.
Summer’s in full swing for MLB as fans fill out All-Star ballots and hope their favorite players make the cut. With just one full month remaining before the trade deadline, teams keep a close eye on the standings while deciding if they’ll be buyers or sellers come August. Favorites continue to roll this season, winning games at a nearly 60 percent clip (649-437, 59.8 percent). Run totals have seen the Under hit more often than not so far this season (530-500, 51.5 percent).
Only four of Monday’s nine games stand as divisional matchups. Today’s bets look specifically at run lines, hoping to capitalize on hot lineups and weak pitching. Here’s a look at three MLB Best Bets for Monday, June 27th.
The Boston Red Sox (42-31) hope to continue their climb up the AL standings with this series starting in Toronto, although the Blue Jays have had their number so far this season. Boston enters with a 22-15 record on the road and with a lineup that’s hitting a collective .261, the highest mark in the AL.
Over their last 10 games, the Red Sox posted an 8-2 mark, with a .289 batting average and a 3.70 ERA. They outscored opponents by 11 runs over that span. Outfield prospect Jarren Duran has played well with Boston of late, going 13-for-35 with three RBI over the past 10 games, but he’s ineligible to play in Canada due to his COVID-19 vaccination status.
The Toronto Blue Jays (40-32) come to this one scuffling a bit, having gone just 3-7 over their last 10 games. During that stretch, Toronto hitters managed a .231 batting average, while the pitching staff posted a 6.67 ERA. Opponents outscored the Blue Jays by 21 runs in those contests.
Despite the up-and-down play of the Blue Jays this month, they’re still hitting .285 with 46 homers in June. And to ask right-handed pitcher Connor Seabold, who’s making his first start of the season and just the second in his Major League career, to shut down this lineup might be too much.
The over seems like an MLB best bet on Monday because Toronto’s starting pitcher, Kevin Gausman (5-6, 3.19 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 87 strikeouts), has struggled of late, losses in four consecutive starts, and historically against the Sox. In 22 career appearances (17 starts) against Boston, he is 5-8 with a 4.01 ERA.
The Over is 7-1 in Boston’s last eight games against a team with a winning record, and 4-1 in the Red Sox last five on the road versus teams with a winning record. The Over is 12-1 in Toronto’s last 13 home games, and 22-5 in the Blue Jays last 27 games overall.
The Minnesota Twins (41-33) regained their spot atop the AL Central thanks to a 2-1 series victory over the weekend over the Colorado Rockies. They wrested control of the division from Cleveland and the rivals are set to square off in a pivotal five-game series this week.
Minnesota went 5-5 over their last 10 games, registering a .251 batting average and 3.30 team ERA in those contests. The Twins outscored opponents by 11 runs over that span, including a 12-4 run split versus Colorado over the weekend.
The Cleveland Guardians (36-32) took an albeit brief lead in the divisional race last week, but followed that with four straight losses. That said, the Guardians are 5-5 over their last 10, hitting .245 with a 4.45 team ERA. Cleveland opponents outscored them by 10 runs in that stretch.
Monday’s pitching matchup pits Minnesota hurler Sonny Gray (3-1, 2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 46 strikeouts) versus Guardians starter Triston McKenzie (4-5, 3.51 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 66 strikeouts). Gray is 5-3 with a 3.47 ERA in 13 starts against Cleveland, including 2-3 with a 5.28 ERA in five starts at Progressive Field.
McKenzie, meanwhile, has struggled against Minnesota in his career. He’s 1-4 lifetime with a 6.39 ERA in six career starts against the Twins, including 0-1 with a 7.15 ERA in two outings against Minnesota this season. The Twins have slugged five homers off McKenzie in those two starts, and eight in just 74 at-bats overall.
The Over is 9-2-1 in Minnesota’s last 12 games versus a team with a winning record. The Twins have seen the over hit in 15 of their last 22 games against right-handed starters and in five of their last eight versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. For Cleveland, the over is 4-1 in their last five home games, and 8-2 in their last 10 against a team with a winning record.
The Chicago White Sox (34-27) entered 2022 as betting favorites to win the AL Central, but they’ve struggled for consistency this season. Over their last 10 games, the White Sox posted a 4-6 mark, with a .259 batting average and 4.85 team ERA. Opponents outscored them by 16 runs over that span. The White Sox have the third-ranked team batting average in the AL at .252 for the season.
The Los Angeles Angels (35-40) have had a similarly frustrating season, and enter this contest with looming suspensions following a brawl with the Seattle Mariners on Sunday. The Angels managed a 5-5 mark over their last 10, with a .223 batting average, 3.33 ERA, and an even run differential over that span.
The pitching matchup on tap sees Chicago’s Lucas Giolito (4-4, 5.40 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 76 strikeouts) set to face Angels starter Noah Syndergaard (4-6, 3.86 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 40 strikeouts).
Giolito’s coming off his two worst starts of the season. The right-hander gave up eight runs and seven hits in five innings in a loss to Houston on June 17, and seven runs and 11 hits in five innings in a loss to Toronto last week. Giolito enters 2-1 with a 3.93 ERA in six career starts against the Angels. Syndergaard, meanwhile, is 0-4 with a 5.31 ERA in his last four starts.
The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these clubs in Los Angeles. The White Sox have seen the over hit in eight of their last 12 road games and in four of their six contests versus AL West opponents this season.
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