MLB Best Bets For Monday, July 11

MLB’s Monday slate sees 10 games on the schedule, including a double-header in Kansas City. MLB Odds are almost evenly split between the home and road teams for these ballgames, with the line still pending for the first game of that twin bill. Home teams enter Monday having won 52.1 percent of their games this season.

Scoring in Sunday’s games were up across the board. Nine of the 15 games on Sunday saw at least one of the two teams plate six runs. More than half of yesterday’s game hit the over, which breaks from the year-long MLB over vs under trend. So far this season, the under has hit 52 percent of the time (631-583).

Eight of Monday’s 10 games stand as divisional matchups, including an important NL East showdown starting in Atlanta between the Braves and New York Mets. Today’s bets back some of the top pitchers in baseball while fading a pair of the worst. Here’s a look at three MLB Best Bets for Monday, July 11th.

Game			Best Bet
Philadelphia at St Louis			Under 7.5 Runs -105 (DraftKings)
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves			Under 7.0 Runs -105 (BetMGM)
Oakland at Texas			Over 8.5 Runs +106 (UniBet)

Philadelphia Phillies at St Louis Cardinals

MLB Best Bet: Under 7.5 Runs -105 (DraftKings)

The Philadelphia Phillies (46-40) look to leave St Louis with a 3-1 series win over the Cardinals with a victory on Monday. The Phillies took the first two games of this series, 2-0 and 1-0, behind stellar pitching and timely hitting. Philadelphia sends one of their top pitchers to the mound, hoping to improve upon their 22-19 road record and strength their spot in the standings.

The St Louis Cardinals (46-42) saw the Phillies wrest away control of the NL’s final Wild Card berth by dropping the first two games of this series. The Cardinals’ 4-3 win on Sunday helped close the gap and a win on Monday means they’ll tie in the standings. St Louis has been good at home this season, posting a 25-18 record so far.

These two teams feel like they’re going in opposite directions of late. The Phillies enter Monday’s game 7-3 over their last 10, with a .262 batting average and a 2.43 ERA. Philadelphia outscored opponents by 29 runs over that span. St Louis, meanwhile, enters 3-7 over their last 10, hitting just .207 with a 3.72 ERA in their last 10 games.

Monday’s pitching matchup pits Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola (5-6, 3.15 ERA, .92 WHIP, 120 strikeouts) against Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas (5-7, 2.72 ERA, .99 WHIP, 83 strikeouts). Mikolas has suffered from poor run support all season. St Louis has been shut out in four of his starts and it scored just once in two others. He is 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in four career appearances against the Phillies. Nola is 5-2 with a 2.19 ERA in eight career starts against the Cardinals.

Each of the first three games of this series hit the under, and these teams combined for just 10 runs in those contests. The Phillies have seen the under in five straight games and seven of their last 10. The under is 8-0 for St Louis in their last eight games versus winning teams and 7-0 in their last seven versus right-handed starters. The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these clubs and 7-1 in the last eight in St Louis.

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

MLB Best Bet: Under 7.0 Runs -105 (BetMGM)

The New York Mets (53-33) come to this pivotal NL East series holding 1.5-game lead in the division over the Braves. After racing out to a significant lead early in the season, the Mets have seen that lead shorten as Atlanta surged in the standings. New York split a division series 2-2 with the Marlins over the weekend.

The Atlanta Braves (52-35) continue to pressure the Mets in the NL East and have been particularly good at home. The Braves have won three straight in Atlanta and sport a 30-18 record at home. Atlanta hitters have a collective .444 slugging percentage to lead MLB.

The pitching matchup for this game could be the best one of MLB’s Monday schedule. New York sends Max Scherzer (5-1, 2.26 ERA, .88 WHIP, 70 strikeouts) out versus Braves All-Star Max Fried (9-2, 2.52 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 100 strikeouts).

Scherzer looked sharp in his return to the mound last week, going six innings allowing just two hits and striking out 11 on just 79 pitches against the Cincinnati Reds. For the Braves, Fried has gone 15 starts without a loss. He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts and just one earned run in his previous 13 innings.

Fried enters 5-3 with a 2.80 ERA in 17 games against the Mets in his career. Scherzer, meanwhile, sports a 10-9 career mark with a 3.88 ERA in 27 games against Atlanta.

The Under is 9-1 in Atlanta’s last 10 home games, and 10-1 in the Braves last 11 games following a win. The Under is 6-1 in Atlanta’s last seven versus a right-handed starter, and 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last four road games versus a left-handed starter.

Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers

MLB Best Bet: Over 8.5 Runs +106 (UniBet)

The Oakland Athletics (29-58) remain the worst team in baseball and sit at the bottom of MLB rankings in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and attendance. The A’s have only scored more than three runs in a game twice this month, and managed just a .193 batting average over their last 10 games. Despite the offensive futility, though, Oakland went 4-6 in that stretch with a 3.52 ERA and was outscored by just six runs.

The Texas Rangers (39-44) stayed in the Wild Card chase through the early summer, but their recent 3-7 stretch sent them sliding down the standings. The Rangers hit well, with a .243 batting average, but offense hasn’t been the issue. Texas posted a 4.29 team ERA and were outscored by two runs over that span.

Though the A’s have been the league’s lightest hitting team all season, Monday’s pitching matchup points to the Over as an MLB Best Bet. Oakland sends Adrian Martinez (2-1, 6.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 11 strikeouts) out against Rangers starter Spencer Howard (0-1, 10.97 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 14 strikeouts).

Martinez is 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA and .282 batting-average-against in 10 innings across two road starts. Howard, meanwhile, surrendered four earned runs over four innings in his last start. He’s yet to work beyond four innings in a start this season.

The Over is 5-1 across the past six games for Texas, and Rangers pitching has allowed five or more runs in five of the past six games. The Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between these clubs, and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Texas.