Home Runs Are Down, Small Ball Is Back: What Does Decreased Run Production in Baseball Mean for MLB World Series Favorites?

A quick look at the box scores across Major League Baseball on a nightly basis will tell you that runs are down.

Statistics back up that hypothesis: in April, teams averaged 4.0 runs per game, which is the lowest number for an entire month since 1981, and a full quarter of a run lower than last April. 

Now, you might chalk this up to luck, some slumping teams, or teams hitting more singles and doubles instead of home runs.

You would be wrong.

The leaguewide batting average in April was .231, which was the lowest April in the history of baseball–and offenses are a lot more powerful now than they were decades and generations ago. 

What makes this even more striking, however, is that this paltry number was put up without pitchers hitting anymore. That’s right–the National League is using the designated hitter this year instead of essentially giving up an out with the starting pitcher taking two or three at-bats per game (pitchers batted a combined .110 last season).

The Difference Lies in the Home Run

In the second half of the last decade, it was almost like every game was being played at Coors Field. Home runs were hit at a dizzying pace. The 2019 Minnesota Twins set an MLB record for the number of home runs hit in a season.

In April of that season, 1.31 home runs were hit per team per game. It dipped to 1.14 last year, but that number was still the third-highest in history. This year, it’s down to 0.91 per game, which is in line with where it was in 2015. 

In 2019, 43.5% of every run scored in April came from a home run. This year, that number was down to 36%–also where it was in 2015. 

Why Is This Happening?

If you’re wondering why this is happening, it’s intentional. Hitters aren’t getting weaker, and pitchers aren’t appreciably better (even though their numbers have been better this season). 

MLB made the decision to put all balls to be used in a game in a humidor before being taken to the field. Long used in Colorado, humidors can be set to pull humidity out of the ball, making them lighter. 

Additionally, Rawlings, the company that manufactures baseballs for MLB, loosened the tension on some of the wool windings inside the ball. Rawlings estimated that a fly ball that traveled 375 feet last year might go a foot or two less this year.

What Have the Changes Actually Done?

In pouring over statistics of how fast home-run balls traveled and what their launch angle was, ESPN found that balls hit the exact same way in the exact same park are coming up far shorter than one or two feet. 

Examples were taken from games played indoors in Milwaukee and Tampa Bay to take out the weather as a factor. 

One showed that a ball hit with a 103 mph exit velocity and a 29-degree launch angle by Lewin Diaz last September at Tropicana Field was a 401-foot home run. However, Manuel Margot hit a ball with the exact same properties this April and it was a harmless flyout that traveled 391 feet. 

In the most extreme example, a Mookie Betts home run in 2019 was hit with a 103 mph EV and 28-degree launch angle, and it traveled 424 feet. Dylan Moore did the exact same thing in April and the ball went 384 feet–another home run-turned-out. 

What Does it Mean for This Year’s World Series FavorITes?

Assuming pitching will be at a premium in the postseason and that runs and hitting may play a greater factor than hitting home runs, let’s take a look at the 2022 statistics and see what they might tell us based on teams’ positioning in the standings. (All stats are through games played on May 12, 2022.)

Accurate Predictor: Runs Scored

Yes, it’s fairly obvious that good teams are going to score a lot of runs, but that is what we’re seeing in 2022. The Los Angeles Angels lead MLB with 164 runs scored, and they are a game back in the loss column of Houston for first in the American League West. Milwaukee and the Los Angeles Dodgers are next, and they lead their respective divisions. The New York Yankees and Mets are fifth and seventh, respectively, and are both in first place, and the Philadelphia Phillies are the only top-10 team in the category to not be over .500.

Not Accurate Predictor: Home Runs

Seven of the top-10 teams in home runs last year made the playoffs, and only just one finished under .500. This year, that number would be six, but there are two additional playoff teams this year; the number would drop to four using last year’s format.

Accurate Predictor: On-Base Percentage

On-base percentage may be more important this year than the home run, which is the way things used to be. Getting on base is the name of the game. At this point in the season, there are eight teams with a winning percentage over .600. Six of those teams are in the top eight in OBP: Mets (1), Giants (2), Dodgers (3), Angels (4), Yankees (5), and Padres (8). 

All told, these statistics show that a balanced offense–where power plays a part but isn’t overly relied on like in the past five years–has been the key to success so far in 2022. 

Pitching Is Still Key, but It’s Better This Year

Last year, the top-eight teams in ERA all made the playoffs. This year, the projections are similar, as the top-eight teams in the category would all be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

The difference, however, is the ERA number. In 2021, the Dodgers led the league in pitching with a 3.01 ERA. This year, the Dodgers still lead the category, but that number is 2.48. Two other teams (Astros and Yankees) are also under the 3.00 mark. 

The Blue Jays have pitched around the same in 2021 and so far in ‘22. Last year, Toronto had a 3.91 ERA, and this year, it’s 3.96. But in 2021, that number was good enough for 10th place, while this season, it’s 21st. That could partially explain why Toronto, World Series favorites in the American League, is just 17-15 at this point in the season. 

Any Good Value in World Series Odds Based on These Conclusions?

Examining these statistics tends to take luck out of the equation. Arizona, Colorado, and the Chicago White Sox are at or just above the .500 mark but don’t appear regularly on these lists.

Toronto’s offense has been around what was expected (maybe sightly below), but their pitching has been disappointing. As a result, they have dropped from +750 to +1000 in consensus World Series odds, still fourth-best in MLB and ahead of teams like Houston and Milwaukee, division leaders that appear more complete. 

For value, we like Milwaukee at +1300. It only appears that the Brewers will be challenged by St. Louis (currently 2.5 games back), and both teams will pile up wins over Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and the Chicago Cubs all season, so the Brewers should be a near-lock to reach the playoffs. 

Further down, the Giants are in a tough NL West, where all five teams are currently above .500. But San Francisco shook off a rough stretch last week to now win five-straight contests. Overcoming a five-game losing streak shows resiliency, but the Giants can still be had at FanDuel for +2500.

Speaking of +2500, those are the futures odds of the Angels on DraftKings. LA can pitch, they can hit, they can win at home (12-7), they can win on the road (9-5), and they have a manager in Joe Maddon who turned Tampa Bay from a laughingstock into an extremely successful franchise and the Cubs from lovable losers into World Series champions. 

With the talent the Angels have had over the past decade but without the results to show for it, Maddon–who is a master of getting his players to succeed at the little things to earn wins–appears to be turning that raw talent into a winning ballclub. Perhaps it’s no surprise that with an offense needing to be more well-rounded again, Maddon could be taking a team to the playoffs for the first time since 2017, which is around when baseball started to get home run happy. 

Take advantage of this number on the Angels before the sportsbooks catch up and adjust the odds.