2023 MLB Win Total Odds: 3 Best Bets for the Over

By Chris Hughes   March 24, 2023 

2023 MLB Win Total Odds: 3 Best Bets for the Over

We’re less than a week away from one of the best days on the MLB calendar: Opening Day! Now is the time to finalize your win total bets. We’re here to help with our best bets for teams to go over their MLB win total odds, starting with a big change going into the 2023 season.

MLB Balanced Schedule Will Affect Win Total Bets

Major League Baseball is doing away with the long-used unbalanced schedule. Here’s a breakdown of the change to a balanced schedule.

19 per team6 or 7 per team20 total13 per team6 or 7 per team46 total

Instead of just 20 interleague games against six teams, teams will have at least three games against every team in the opposing league. We’ll explain how this can help or hurt some teams as we go.

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MLB Win Total Best Bets: Los Angeles Dodgers Over 94.5

At Caesars Sportsbook, the Los Angeles Dodgers are available at 94.5, which is two wins fewer than most other sportsbooks. Since we have our eye on the Dodgers going over the win total, two wins is a big difference. You’ll definitely want to shop around.

The Dodgers will be without Walker Buehler this season as he recovers from Tommy John Surgery, and Tony Gonsolin also is starting the year on the injured list, but history has shown that the Dodgers will just continue to dominate in the NL West.

Not counting the 60-game 2020 season, the Dodgers have won at least 106 games in three-straight years and had 104 wins in 2017.

Julio Urias will get a chance to lead the rotation as the Opening Day starter over Clayton Kershaw just over two years after closing out the 2020 World Series, and Dustin May and Noah Syndergaard round out the rotation once Gonsolin returns to health.

The offense will look a little different without Trey Turner, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger. J.D. Martinez has been signed to give the lineup some of the pop it lost. The Dodgers likely won’t be as good as their 111-win team last year, but will they be 17 games worse? We doubt it. The Dodgers are also +380 to win the National League pennant.

MLB Win Total Best Bets: Los Angeles Angels Over 81.5

After opening at 80.5 at most sportsbooks, the Los Angeles Angels are now at 82.5 virtually everywhere you look. We did find them, however, at 81.5 at FanDuel.

Despite the talent that the Angels have (just look at the final at-bat of the World Baseball Classic, when Shohei Othani squared off against teammate Mike Trout), the team has been one of the biggest underachievers in baseball in recent years.

Despite having two of the very best players in baseball since 2018, the Halos haven’t finished above .500 with the duo. Their best record together was 80-82 in 2019. The Angels are +5000 to win the World Series currently.

Adding Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury to the lineup will give it a much-needed boost around Trout and Ohtani, and Gio Urshela and Drury can play third base in case Anthony Rendon continues to have issues staying healthy. On the pitching side, getting Tyler Anderson from the Dodgers was solid, and Reid Detmers was a much better pitcher after he was sent down to AAA for a spell. He also threw a no-hitter last April. Six fewer games against both the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners will be the final push the Angels need to get over .500.

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MLB Win Total Best Bets: Baltimore Orioles Over 77.5

The Baltimore Orioles one of the biggest surprises last year, eclipsing their 2022 win total odds of 69.5 with an 83-79 record. Even with around four wins of luck (their Pythagorean win total was 79), the O’s overachieved.

So why, with so many young players (including catcher Adley Rutschman) coming back and more expected to contribute this year, is their win total odds at BetMGM just 77.5?

Sure, the Orioles overachieved in a major way, and some regression is expected. But losing six more games than last year seems unlikely, especially because Baltimore will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the balanced schedule. There will be 24 fewer games against the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, and Boston Red Sox–three of which made the playoffs a year ago.

A look at last year’s expanded standings shows Baltimore was 34-42 against the AL East and 49-37 against the rest of MLB. That’s enough for us to back the over for the O’s.

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