All of a Sudden, Max Scherzer Is Running Away with a Once-Competitive National League Cy Young Race

By Akiva Wienerkur   September 29, 2021 

All of a Sudden, Max Scherzer Is Running Away with a Once-Competitive National League Cy Young Race

Max Scherzer has long been known as one of the fiercest competitors in baseball. Earlier this season, on a last place team in Washington, Scherzer was having a typically good individual season for the Nationals.

But it should come as no surprise that he has found another gear after being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are hoping to win their second straight World Series. 

Scherzer has won his first seven decisions as a Dodger and Los Angeles has gone 9-0 overall in his first nine starts. He had a 2.76 ERA with Washington, which would’ve put in around the top five in baseball if he’d stayed near that mark. Instead, he’s putting up a 0.78 ERA in Los Angeles and has vaulted to the lead in all of baseball in the category.

He’s struck out 79 batters in 58 innings with Los Angeles and is striking out 11 batters for every walk he gives up, which is by far a career-best mark for him. 

Thanks in large part to his dominance, the Dodgers have clinched a playoff spot and (in an unsurprising development to the MLB odds market) have pulled to within two games of the San Francisco Giants for the NL West lead. Los Angeles and San Francisco would love to avoid playing in the single-elimination Wild Card round. They have the two best records in all of baseball, but since they play in the same division, one team will have to play as a Wild Card and risk one off performance ending their season.

Sep 18, 2021; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) throws a pitch against the Cincinnati Reds during the first inning at Great American Ball Park. David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Scherzer seems determined to help the Dodgers avoid that potential fate. His performance has obviously fueled the team, but he’s also positioned himself comfortably at the top of NL Cy Young futures odds.

If he wins, it would be his fourth Cy Young Award of his career and the third team he’s won it with – he also won with the Detroit Tigers and with the Nationals.

Scherzer’s performance has also vaulted him past a teammate who was once considered a favorite for the award. Walker Buehler, currently given the third-best odds of winning, is third in baseball with a 2.39 ERA. He has a 14-4 record and 194 strikeouts in 192 innings.

A pair of Milwaukee Brewers pitchers also have outside chances at the award according to MLB futures odds. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff anchor a Brewers staff that has given up the second-fewest runs in baseball. They are second and fourth, respectively, in all of baseball in ERA and have helped the Brewers clinch the NL Central title.

If Scherzer had not found another gear down the stretch, all four pitchers would likely be in a very close race. But Scherzer has definitely separated himself. Regardless of the individual award, both teams should have nearly impossible top twos to compete against in a playoff series.

The American League race is quite a bit more competitive, with several pitchers making strong cases. New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole is still the favorite according to futures odds, and he has been much of the season. He’s 15-7 with a 2.75 ERA and is averaging more than 12 strikeouts per nine innings. 

He has some suddenly strong competition, though, coming from the same source that his team does. The Toronto Blue Jays, fueled by a hot August and September, have pulled past the Yankees in the playoff standings by a half-game as of September 19, and pitcher Robbie Ray is making a strong push for Cy Young consideration as the staff ace.

Ray leads the American League in ERA at 2.64 and leads all of baseball in strikeouts at 233. 

Cole’s candidacy shouldn’t be a surprise. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the American League for several seasons already, and signed a massive contract with the Yankees. Multiple Cy Young awards seem to be in his future.

Ray, meanwhile, is coming off of nightmare season in which he had an ERA over 6.00. Ray is 29 and, though he’s shown flashes of potential in Detroit and Arizona, he’s never consistently been able to put it together until this season. He also just so happens to be entering free agency in the offseason, so his elite performance is coming at an opportune time.

A pair of White Sox pitchers, Lance Lynn and Carlos Rodon, are also in the mix for the award. But if the Blue Jays continue to close as strong as they’ve played the last month, expect Ray to overtake Cole and capture the award.

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